Market Overview for Terra/Tether (LUNAUSDT) - 2025-11-06

Summary
• LUNAUSDT traded in a tight range with a 24-hour high of $0.0825 and low of $0.0784.
• Volume surged to 2.7 million LUNA and turnover hit $217.4k, signaling increased activity.
• A bearish engulfing pattern and declining RSI hint at near-term downside pressure.

Terra/Tether’s LUNAUSDT pair opened at $0.0809 on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $0.0825 and a low of $0.0784 before closing at $0.0816 on 2025-11-06 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 2.7 million LUNA, with notional turnover amounting to $217.4k, reflecting elevated trading activity.

Structure & Formations

Price action formed a bearish engulfing pattern during the overnight hours as the asset fell from $0.0825 to $0.0816, suggesting a potential reversal of bullish momentum. A doji appeared near $0.0809 on the 15-minute chart, indicating indecision. Key support levels are forming around $0.0805 and $0.0798, while resistance appears at $0.0815 and $0.0822.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are converging, with price oscillating just below the 20SMA. On the daily chart, the 50DMA appears to be trending higher, crossing above the 100DMA, suggesting some underlying bullish momentum, but price remains below the 200DMA, indicating a bearish bias in the longer term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line during the overnight session, signaling bearish momentum. RSI dipped into oversold territory around $0.0784, but has since rebounded, suggesting some short-term bounce potential. However, the RSI divergence with price raises concerns about the sustainability of the rally.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded overnight as the Bollinger Bands widened, with price dropping to the lower band. Current price of $0.0816 is now closer to the middle band, suggesting a potential consolidation phase. A sustained break above the upper band could indicate renewed buying interest.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 1.1 million LUNA during the early morning session, coinciding with a sharp drop in price. Notional turnover surged to $91.3k during the same period, highlighting strong bearish conviction. However, volume has since declined, suggesting that momentum may be fading.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from $0.0825 to $0.0784, the 38.2% level is at $0.0809 and the 61.8% level at $0.0817. Price appears to be consolidating around the 61.8% level, suggesting potential for a near-term bounce if support holds.

Backtest Hypothesis

To evaluate potential trading signals, we propose a 5-day holding strategy based on a computed RSI (14-period) from the price data. The strategy would trigger a long entry if RSI falls below 30 (oversold), followed by a 5-day hold and an exit at the close of the fifth day. A short entry would be triggered if RSI rises above 70 (overbought), with a similar 5-day exit. This approach leverages the current RSI divergence and volume profile to identify potential inflection points in the near term.

Looking ahead, the market may test the $0.0805 support level in the next 24 hours, with a failure to hold there potentially opening the door to further downside. Traders should monitor the 61.8% Fibonacci level and watch for volume confirmation on any attempted bounce. As always, position sizing and stop-loss placement are essential to manage the risks of a volatile market.