Market Overview for Terra/Tether (LUNAUSDT) on 2025-10-29

• Price tested key resistance at 0.1003 before consolidating into a downtrend.
• RSI entered oversold territory, suggesting potential for near-term reversal.
• Volume spiked during the bearish breakdown but weakened in the final hours.
• Bollinger Bands contracted before the price action confirmed a lower range.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed around 0.0971–0.0973 after 6 hours of consolidation.

Terra/Tether (LUNAUSDT) opened at 0.0995 on 2025-10-28 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.1003, and a low of 0.0957 before closing at 0.0985 on 2025-10-29 at 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour window was 24,045,476.22, and notional turnover amounted to $2,380,523.50.

Structure and formations revealed a bearish breakdown from the 0.0996 resistance level after heavy volume and a rejection candle. A 4-hour consolidation phase led to a bullish engulfing pattern at 0.0971–0.0973, followed by a small but decisive rebound. Support levels emerged at 0.0973 (confirmed by multiple closes) and 0.0968, with 0.0957 acting as a recent floor. Resistance levels include 0.0976 (first hurdle) and 0.0983 (key breakout level). A doji formed at 0.0985 near the 12:00 ET close, indicating indecision.

The 15-minute 20- and 50-period moving averages crossed in a bearish configuration early in the session but began to flatten as the price stabilized. Daily MA 50/100/200 lines trended lower but began to converge closer as the price approached the 0.097–0.0975 range. The MACD showed bearish momentum early but flipped to a bullish signal after 03:00 ET, while RSI dipped below 30 into oversold territory, suggesting a short-term reversal could be in the cards.

Bollinger Bands contracted significantly between 02:00 and 05:00 ET before the price action broke out of the lower band, confirming a short-term bounce. Price has since remained within the band, indicating a return to a more typical range. Volatility, while elevated earlier in the session, has since normalized. Notional turnover increased during the bearish breakdown but has since declined, suggesting the momentum has weakened.

Fibonacci retracements highlighted key levels from the recent 0.0957–0.1003 swing. The 0.0973 level (38.2% retracement) acted as a strong support and was retested multiple times. The 61.8% level at 0.0989 remains a critical resistance ahead of the 0.1003 high.

The backtesting strategy focuses on a mean-reversion approach using RSI and Bollinger Bands. It triggers a long entry when RSI dips below 30 and the price touches the lower Bollinger Band, with a stop-loss 50 pips below the entry and a target at the 38.2% retracement level. A short entry is triggered when RSI rises above 70 and the price breaches the upper band. The strategy is most effective in range-bound environments and less so during strong breakouts. Given the current price near the 0.0973 support and RSI in oversold territory, the strategy would likely suggest a long bias.