Market Overview for Terra/Tether (LUNAUSDT) – 2025-10-08

• LUNAUSDT consolidates near 0.1350 amid mixed 24-hour momentum and moderate volatility.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged early on 2025-10-07, followed by a failed retest.
• Volume increased after 03:00 ET, supporting recent price action but lacking a strong directional bias.
• RSI hovered near neutral territory, with MACD signaling a potential trend pause.

The Terra/Tether pair, trading under the ticker LUNAUSDT, opened at 0.1354 on 2025-10-07 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.1361, and a low of 0.1326, closing at 0.1353 on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 5,399,802.99, with notional turnover amounting to approximately $732,472.50, based on the average price of ~0.1353.

Structure & Formations

LUNAUSDT displayed a bearish engulfing candle at 16:00 ET on 2025-10-07, with a strong close below the open from the previous candle. This suggested a short-term bearish bias, but subsequent price action failed to confirm a sustained move lower. A key support level appears to be forming near 0.1345–0.1347, as the pair has bounced from that level multiple times. A doji at 03:00 ET on 2025-10-08 signaled indecision, and 0.1355 may become a psychological pivot point for potential continuation.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA crossed near 0.1350–0.1353, supporting a neutral-to-bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50DMA and 200DMA crossed into convergence near 0.1347–0.1348, indicating a potential consolidation phase. Traders watching for a breakout may want to monitor the 200DMA as a key level.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram flattened after 03:00 ET on 2025-10-08, indicating a potential pause in momentum. RSI remained in the mid-range (~45–55), suggesting a balanced market with no immediate overbought or oversold conditions. A breakout above 0.1360 or below 0.1340 could trigger stronger directional movement.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained in a moderate range with the price hovering within the bands for most of the day. A minor contraction occurred near 23:00 ET on 2025-10-07, followed by a mild expansion after 01:00 ET. The price closed near the upper band at 03:00 ET, indicating short-term bullish bias, though this was quickly reversed.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked after 03:00 ET, supporting the price move toward 0.1360. However, notional turnover remained relatively balanced with no clear divergence from price. The lack of follow-through suggests that the breakout may not be confirmed without additional volume.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing from 0.1326 to 0.1361, the 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels are at 0.1346 and 0.1352, respectively. These levels align with the key consolidation zone seen on the 15-minute chart, suggesting that 0.1346 may provide strong support if the price pulls back. A close above 0.1352 could signal a potential test of 0.1356 as resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions when LUNAUSDT closes above the 20SMA on the 15-minute chart and RSI crosses above 50, with a stop-loss below the recent 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The trade would target a take-profit near the 0.1360–0.1365 range, consistent with recent volatility and resistance levels. This setup could be tested over the past month to determine its effectiveness in similar market conditions.