Market Overview for Terra/Tether (LUNAUSDT) on 2025-09-27

• Price for LUNAUSDT rose from 0.1345 to 0.1399 over 24 hours, with a key breakout above prior resistance.
• Volume spiked dramatically after 19:15 ET, confirming bullish momentum and price consolidation.
• MACD and RSI suggest overbought territory with moderate divergence risks ahead of a potential correction.
• Bollinger Bands show moderate expansion, indicating increased volatility and a probable range-bound rebound.
• Strong Fibonacci retracement levels at 0.1385 (61.8%) and 0.1403 (127.2%) suggest potential support and resistance.

Terra/Tether (LUNAUSDT) opened at 0.1345 on 2025-09-26 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.1399 at 12:00 ET the next day. The 24-hour high and low were 0.1403 and 0.1343, respectively. Total volume amounted to 6,263,782.93, with a notional turnover of approximately $863,934.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern over the past 24 hours shows a clear bullish breakout, with a strong move above the prior 0.1385 resistance level. The candle on 2025-09-26 at 19:15 ET (0.1371–0.1384) was a bullish engulfing pattern, indicating a shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish. A doji formed at 03:15 ET (0.1392–0.1393), suggesting indecision and potential consolidation ahead.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period SMA is rising sharply, crossing above the 50-period SMA in a golden cross formation, confirming bullish momentum. For the daily chart, the 50-period SMA has crossed above the 200-period SMA, reinforcing the broader uptrend. Both indicators point to a continuation of the bullish trend, but a pullback to the 50-period line could signal a temporary pause.

MACD & RSI

The MACD is in positive territory with a rising histogram, showing strong momentum. The RSI has entered overbought territory (75–80 range), but remains below 85, indicating the uptrend could continue for a bit longer. However, a divergence in the RSI line from the price action—particularly after the 22:45 ET candle—suggests caution in the near term. A move back below 60 would likely indicate a bearish correction.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have widened significantly following the breakout, with the 0.1403 high reaching the upper band. This expansion reflects heightened volatility and trader optimism. Price has oscillated between the bands multiple times, suggesting a possible reversion to the mean. A close below the mid-band (0.1397) could signal the start of a consolidation phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume has increased dramatically during the breakout, particularly in the 19:15–20:30 ET window, with the 19:15 ET candle showing over 901,535.66 in volume. Notional turnover also spiked in this period, reaching $125,255 in that 15-minute window. The correlation between rising volume and price suggests strong conviction in the bullish thesis. However, a divergence between volume and price in the overnight hours may indicate waning conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels for the recent 15-minute swing (0.1343–0.1403) show key resistance at 0.1385 (61.8%) and 0.1403 (127.2%). The daily swing (0.1343–0.1403) has a 61.8% retracement at 0.1377, which acted as a minor support level. Price has tested both 61.8% and 127.2% levels, suggesting a possible pullback to 0.1385 before resuming the upward trajectory.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtest strategy involves entering long positions on LUNAUSDT following a bullish engulfing pattern with a 15-minute close above the 20-period SMA and a RSI above 60. The exit is triggered when the RSI falls below 50 or the 20-period SMA crosses below the 50-period SMA. Over the past 24 hours, the 19:15 ET candle met all these criteria, offering a high-probability entry point. If applied consistently over historical data, this strategy could capture a significant portion of the upward momentum seen in the recent breakout.