Market Overview for Terra/Tether (LUNAUSDT) as of 2025-09-26

• Price fell from 0.1366 to 0.1315 in 24 hours, with a low-volume rebound near 0.134
• RSI dipped below 30, suggesting oversold conditions
• Volatility expanded in the 15-minute chart, with Bollinger Bands widening
• Volume surged mid-day but declined sharply after 00:00 ET
• No strong bullish candlestick patterns observed; bearish dominance noted

The Terra/Tether pair (LUNAUSDT) opened at 0.1364 at 12:00 ET-1 and closed at 0.1322 at 12:00 ET after a steady descent. The price hit a high of 0.1366 and a low of 0.1315, with total volume for the period amounting to 18,914,893.98 and turnover of 2,509,328.37. The price has shown a clear bearish bias, especially in the mid- to late-day trading session.

Structure & Formations

The price has been trading within a descending channel, with key support forming around 0.1315 and resistance near 0.134–0.1345. A bearish flag pattern appears to be developing following a sharp sell-off in the early part of the day. There were several long-bodied bearish candles, with no clear bullish engulfing or doji patterns suggesting indecision or reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are in bearish alignment, with the price consistently below both. The 50-period MA at around 0.1345 and the 20-period MA near 0.1347 suggest short-term bearish continuation. On a daily chart, the 50 and 200-period MAs remain unchanged in a broader bearish trend, with no immediate sign of a reversal.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram is in negative territory, with both the signal and line trending downward, reinforcing bearish momentum. The RSI has dipped below 30 for much of the day, reaching as low as 27, indicating a potential oversold condition. However, given the sustained downward pressure, a bounce may be short-lived and lack conviction.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the mid- to late-day period, with Bollinger Bands widening and the price trading closer to the lower band. This suggests increased risk aversion or profit-taking from short positions. The contraction of the bands earlier in the day may have signaled a potential breakout or breakdown, which has now materialized in a bearish direction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover were highest during the sell-off from 17:00 to 19:00 ET, with one 15-minute interval (18:00–18:15) recording a volume of 771,324.76 and a turnover of 102,698.64. After midnight, volume dropped sharply, with the 00:00–00:15 ET period showing only 90,234.99 in volume and 11,990.54 in turnover. This divergence may signal waning selling pressure but also indicates weak follow-through from buyers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 15-minute swing low of 0.1315 and the high of 0.1366, key levels at 0.1345 (23.6%), 0.1355 (38.2%), and 0.1362 (50%) could act as short-term resistance. A potential rebound above 0.1345 may trigger a retest of 0.1355 but is unlikely to break beyond without strong volume confirmation.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish structure and overbought RSI in the morning followed by an oversold reading later, a backtesting strategy could be designed to short on RSI divergence below 30 combined with a volume spike and close below the 20-period MA. A stop-loss could be placed above the 0.1345 level, while a take-profit target could be placed near the 0.1310–0.1305 support zone. This setup would aim to capitalize on continuation after an oversold bounce, with a bias toward short-term bearish continuation.