Market Overview for Terra/Tether (LUNAUSDT) – 2025-09-16

• Price action on LUNAUSDT showed a slow recovery from intraday lows, forming a bullish engulfing pattern near 0.1463.
• Volume and turnover surged in the 22:00–05:00 ET window, aligning with price consolidation near 0.147–0.1485.
• RSI and MACD indicated a potential shift in momentum, with RSI rebounding from oversold territory.
• Volatility expanded in the final 6 hours, with price widening its range and testing the 0.1483 resistance.
• The 24-hour volume was 19.35M LUNA, and the notional turnover reached $2.76M, showing active accumulation.

The Terra/Tether (LUNAUSDT) pair opened at 0.1472 on 2025-09-15 12:00 ET and closed at 0.1481 as of 2025-09-16 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range spanned from 0.1450 to 0.1492. Total volume reached 19.35 million LUNA, with a notional turnover of $2.76 million, indicating strong liquidity and investor participation.

Structure & Formations

LUNAUSDT’s price action showed a clear structure from 0.1463 to 0.1483, with key support at 0.1463 and resistance at 0.1483. A bullish engulfing pattern formed in the 0.1463–0.1466 range, signaling a potential reversal from bearish to bullish sentiment. A bearish divergence was noted earlier in the session, but it was negated by the late recovery. A key consolidation phase occurred between 0.147–0.1485, with 0.1475 acting as a strong pivot level.

Support / Resistance Levels

• Strong support at 0.1463
• Intermediate support at 0.1472
• Key resistance at 0.1483
• Intermediate resistance at 0.1491
• Previous high of 0.1492 could be a short-term ceiling.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed into a bullish alignment in the final 4 hours, reinforcing the upward bias. The 50-period MA provided a dynamic support level, while the 20-period MA acted as a momentum indicator. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA sat at 0.1468, just below the 100-period MA at 0.1472, with the 200-period MA at 0.1450 forming a long-term support base.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above zero in the 0.1481–0.1483 range, confirming a shift in momentum to the bullish side. The histogram showed a narrowing of bearish momentum early in the session, followed by a strong positive divergence in the last 3 hours. RSI recovered from oversold levels below 30 to a neutral reading of around 52 by the close, suggesting the bears have lost control for now.

Overbought/Oversold Conditions

While RSI did not reach overbought territory (above 70), the rebound from 31 to 52 suggests a healthy correction from a short-term oversold condition. The MACD also confirmed this with a rising histogram and a bullish crossover.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the late evening and early morning hours, with Bollinger Bands widening significantly from a 2.5% range to over a 3.5% range. Price spent much of the session in the lower half of the bands but closed near the upper band at 0.1483. This suggests the market is testing the upper boundary of the new volatility range, with a potential breakout or consolidation to follow.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover spiked between 22:00 and 05:00 ET, with the highest volume occurring in the 22:00–00:30 window. This surge coincided with price consolidation around 0.1475–0.1481, indicating accumulation by larger participants. Notional turnover exceeded $1.1M during this window. No clear divergence between price and turnover was observed, as both aligned with the bullish recovery.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key swing from 0.1463 to 0.1492, the 61.8% retracement level is at 0.1479, and the 78.6% is at 0.1486. These levels correspond closely to the late-session consolidation and the final close near 0.1481–0.1483. On the daily chart, retracements from the previous 0.1450–0.1492 swing also showed strong relevance to the recent price action.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy leverages a combination of RSI divergence, MACD crossover, and volume confirmation to identify high-probability reversal points in low-volume assets. For LUNAUSDT, a long entry could be triggered on a bullish RSI divergence (price low with RSI higher) and a MACD crossover above zero, confirmed by a volume spike. A stop-loss would be placed just below a key support level like 0.1463, while a take-profit target could align with the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 0.1481 or the upper Bollinger Band at 0.1492.