Market Overview: Terra/Tether (LUNAUSDT) on 2025-09-14

• LUNA/USDT opens at $0.1588, with a 24-h high of $0.16 and low of $0.1531.
• Price trends bearish into the close at $0.1541, with increased volatility and volume in the late hours.
• RSI drops below 30, signaling oversold conditions, while MACD turns negative, hinting at bearish momentum.
• Volume spikes observed in the early morning, followed by a sharp decline in turnover midday.
• A bearish engulfing pattern forms in the early session, with a potential support level near $0.1540.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-14, Terra/Tether (LUNA/USDT) opened at $0.1588, with a 24-hour high of $0.16 and a low of $0.1531, closing at $0.1541. Total volume reached 5,175,680.30, while notional turnover amounted to $788,724.89. Price has shown a clear bearish bias, particularly from 00:00 to 07:00 ET, where a sharp decline pushed LUNA below key support levels.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the 24-hour period formed a bearish engulfing pattern early in the morning session, as a large bearish candle followed a small bullish one. A doji appeared near the high at $0.16, indicating a potential reversal failure. Key resistance levels are at $0.1578 and $0.1588, with strong support seen at $0.1540 and $0.1531. A break below $0.1531 could expose deeper support at $0.1520.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are in a bearish crossover, with price below both. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 100 and 200-period lines, though price remains below the 50 MA, suggesting medium-term bearish bias. The 200-period MA at ~$0.1570 acts as a long-term resistance level.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line during the early hours of the morning, confirming a bearish turn. RSI dipped below 30 during the mid-morning and afternoon, indicating oversold conditions, though a rebound has yet to materialize. Momentum remains weak, with no clear signs of a reversal. RSI may remain under pressure unless there is a strong reversal rally above $0.1575.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the early part of the trading day, with Bollinger Bands widening as price dropped from $0.16 to below $0.1540. Price has since remained near the lower band, suggesting a continuation of the downtrend. A reversal above the upper band would require a strong bullish reversal, currently unlikely without a catalyst.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the early morning hours, with the largest 15-minute volume block occurring between 02:15 and 02:30 ET, where turnover reached ~$253,935. After that period, volume gradually declined, while price continued lower. A divergence between volume and price movement is evident in the afternoon session—price fell further with declining volume—suggesting weakening bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Using the recent 15-minute swing from $0.16 to $0.1531, key Fibonacci levels at 38.2% (~$0.1568) and 61.8% (~$0.1552) were tested but failed to hold. On the daily chart, a larger move from $0.16 to $0.1531 aligns with 38.2% at $0.1568 and 61.8% at $0.1552—levels that have provided moderate resistance and support respectively.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve using the bearish engulfing pattern and oversold RSI condition as entry signals. For example, a short position could be initiated after a bearish engulfing candle closes below the previous candle's low, with a stop just above the pattern's high. A target could be set using the next Fibonacci level or key support below. This setup, combined with MACD bearish crossover, would aim to capture continuation of the downtrend. However, the low volume during the late hours may challenge the signal’s reliability, as weak volume may indicate a false break or low conviction.