Market Overview for Terra Classic/Tether (LUNCUSDT)

• Price dipped 1.13% from $0.00004597 to $0.00004388 amid volatile 15-minute swings.
• Volume surged at 04:15 ET, hitting 3.22 billion LUNC, while price briefly rebounded to $0.000047.
• Oversold RSI and a failed bearish breakout below $0.00004535 suggest short-term uncertainty.
• Bollinger Bands show tightening volatility mid-day followed by a sharp expansion post-04:00 ET.
• Fibonacci 61.8% retracement at $0.00004475 failed to hold as price broke below key support.

Terra Classic/Tether (LUNCUSDT) opened at $0.00004597 on 2025-10-27 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $0.00004700 and a low of $0.00004339 before closing at $0.00004388 on 2025-10-28 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour window was approximately 23.66 billion LUNC, with a notional turnover of $10,520,000. The market experienced significant intraday volatility, driven by a sharp selloff after 04:00 ET.

The structure of the 15-minute candlestick chart reveals multiple key levels of support and resistance. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared at the early high of $0.00004640, followed by a failed rally and a breakdown below $0.00004535. The price then tested and broke through a critical support level near $0.00004475, indicating bearish momentum. A notable bearish divergence formed between price and volume on the decline from $0.00004640 to $0.00004388, as volume increased on the downside while the price dropped in a compressed fashion.

Technical Indicators and Momentum

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages (15-min chart) crossed below key support levels around 04:15 ET, confirming a short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA remains above the 200-period MA, suggesting a longer-term neutral to bullish setup, but this was overshadowed by the recent bearish action. The 12/26 MACD crossed below the signal line at $0.00004530, and the histogram showed increasing bearish momentum in the final hours. RSI dipped into oversold territory below 30 during the selloff, hinting at a potential bounce near $0.00004420–$0.00004450, though it remains unclear whether this will hold. Bollinger Bands showed a contraction around 04:00 ET before expanding sharply as the price dropped below $0.00004500.

The Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the recent swing high ($0.00004700) and swing low ($0.00004339) showed a failed test at 61.8% ($0.00004475), with a further breakdown below that level. The 50% level at $0.00004520 and 38.2% at $0.00004618 acted as temporary resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

The bearish engulfing pattern identified at $0.00004640 could serve as a valid trigger for a short trade, with an assumed entry at the close of that candle. A stop-loss could be placed above the high of $0.00004640, while an initial profit target could be set at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of $0.00004475, and a second target at the 100% extension near $0.00004400. Given the divergence in volume and the bearish momentum in both MACD and RSI, this strategy would benefit from a clearly defined exit rule. A fixed time-based exit after 72 hours or a counter-signal such as a bullish engulfing pattern at $0.00004420 could serve as logical closure points. This hypothesis would require testing across a basket of similar volatile altcoin pairs and a range of market conditions.