Market Overview for Terra Classic/Tether (LUNCUSDT)

• Price action for LUNCUSDT showed a volatile 24-hour period with a high of $0.00005787 and low of $0.00005631.
• Momentum indicators hinted at oversold conditions during the early hours and overbought at midday.
• Bollinger Bands suggested a recent increase in volatility, with price oscillating near the upper and lower bounds.
• Notable 15-minute candlestick patterns included a bullish engulfing at $0.00005760 and a bearish rejection at $0.00005650.

Opening Summary

Terra Classic/Tether (LUNCUSDT) opened at $0.00005695 on October 3, 2025 at 12:00 ET - 1, reached a high of $0.00005787, a low of $0.00005631, and closed at $0.00005706 at 12:00 ET on October 4. Total traded volume amounted to 14.25 billion LUNC, with a notional turnover of approximately $805,000 over 24 hours.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a series of consolidation and breakout attempts, with key support levels at $0.00005670 and $0.00005630. A bearish rejection pattern was observed at $0.00005650, where price attempted to retest the support but reversed sharply. Conversely, a bullish engulfing pattern at $0.00005760 confirmed a reversal to the upside, signaling possible short-term buying interest. A morning doji at $0.00005730 hinted at indecision among traders before the breakout.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

On the 15-minute chart, the price crossed above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages during the afternoon hours, suggesting a potential shift in short-term sentiment to bullish. The MACD histogram showed a moderate increase in buying pressure after 19:00 ET, with the RSI briefly touching overbought levels above 65 before pulling back. By midnight, RSI had fallen to oversold levels, implying a possible rebound could be on the cards.

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly in the afternoon and evening, reflecting heightened volatility. The price fluctuated within the bands, with a few touchpoints on the upper boundary, indicating aggressive buying during upward surges. A contraction in the band width observed in the early morning may hint at a potential breakout or breakdown in the near term.

Volume and Turnover

The highest volume spike occurred around 19:30 ET with a 15-minute volume of $984,874,317.74, coinciding with a strong move toward the upper Bollinger Band. The volume-to-price action showed confirmation of strength in this period. However, a divergence between price and volume was noted between 01:30 and 03:00 ET, where price continued to decline while volume dipped, suggesting weakening bearish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 15-minute swing from $0.00005631 to $0.00005787, the 61.8% level at $0.00005739 was a significant point of resistance and support during the consolidation phase. Price bounced off this level twice before finding a new short-term bottom. On the daily chart, a 38.2% retracement level from the recent high to low is likely to be a key area for potential support in the coming days.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent 15-minute chart behavior, a backtesting strategy could focus on the bullish engulfing and bearish rejection patterns, paired with RSI confirmation. A potential long entry could be triggered when the price breaks above a key Fibonacci level with volume confirmation and RSI above 50. A short entry may be considered if the price breaks below a strong support level, with volume increasing and RSI dipping below 30. These signals could be used to develop a systematic trading strategy that leverages short-term volatility and trend reversal cues.