Market Overview: Terra Classic/Tether (LUNCUSDT) – 24-Hour Review

• Price opened at $0.00005379 and closed at $0.00005366, with a high of $0.00005430 and low of $0.00005265.
• A bearish shift emerged after midday with a pullback toward key support near $0.00005320.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions early but failed to confirm bullish momentum.
• Volatility expanded during overnight hours, with a notable volume spike around $0.00005350.
• The 20-period moving average dipped below the 50-period line, suggesting short-term bearish bias.

Terra Classic/Tether (LUNCUSDT) opened at $0.00005379 on 2025-10-07 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.00005366 the following day. The 24-hour range reached a high of $0.00005430 and a low of $0.00005265. Total volume amounted to 14.47 billion contracts, with notional turnover of approximately $772 million.

The price structure showed a bearish reversal after forming a bearish engulfing pattern at the high of $0.00005430. Key support levels formed around $0.00005320 and $0.00005265, with the latter being tested briefly. Resistance clustered at $0.00005370 and $0.00005400. The 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA in a bearish signal, with both below the close. The 50-period and 100-period MAs on daily data remained neutral, suggesting the 15-minute bearish bias may not yet reflect in broader trends.

RSI reached overbought territory above 60 early in the day but failed to confirm strength with divergent volume. A subsequent bearish divergence emerged as RSI dipped below 50, aligning with a pullback. MACD showed bearish crossover with negative momentum, while Bollinger Bands expanded during the overnight hours, indicating higher volatility. Price spent much of the day between the midband and lower band of the Bollinger channel, suggesting a potential consolidation phase ahead.

Fibonacci retracements from the $0.00005430 high to the $0.00005265 low highlighted key levels at $0.00005320 (61.8%) and $0.00005355 (38.2%). The 61.8% level held as a support zone during the late morning pullback. Volume spiked near $0.00005350, confirming the area as a significant point of activity. A divergence between volume and price in the last two hours suggests potential for either a rally or continuation of the downward move.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described focuses on a mean-reversion approach using Fibonacci retracements and RSI as entry and exit signals. It triggers long entries when price bounces off key Fibonacci levels (38.2% and 61.8%) and RSI crosses above 30, suggesting oversold conditions. Exit signals occur when RSI exceeds 70 or price breaks below the 50-period MA, indicating weakening momentum. Short entries occur when price pulls back from overbought RSI (70+) and retests key Fibonacci resistance, exiting when RSI drops below 30 or price breaks above the 50-period MA. Given the current setup, the strategy would have triggered a short signal as price pulled back from the overbought level and retested the 61.8% Fibonacci support. If the support fails, the strategy would remain in position, with a stop-loss near the $0.00005265 level.