Market Overview for Terra Classic/Tether (LUNCUSDT) – 2025-11-12

• Price fell to 0.00003426, forming a bearish trend with declining momentum.
• Volume surged during the decline but has since contracted, signaling consolidation.
• RSI suggests oversold conditions, hinting at potential near-term bounce.
• Key support at 0.00003385 and resistance at 0.00003680 are critical for directional clues.
• MACD histogram turned negative, confirming bearish momentum.

The Terra Classic/Tether (LUNCUSDT) pair opened at 0.00003673 on November 11, 2025, and closed at 0.00003480 on November 12 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.00003690 and a low of 0.00003385. Total 24-hour volume reached 28.9 billion LUNC, with notional turnover hitting $10.1 million, showing strong bearish conviction.

The price action on the 15-minute OHLCV data shows a clear downtrend from the afternoon session on November 11 through the early evening, with a consolidation phase occurring overnight. Key support is seen forming around 0.00003385, where a bearish breakdown occurred, while 0.00003680 represents a critical resistance level that failed to hold. A bearish engulfing pattern is visible during the late afternoon decline, signaling continuation of the downtrend. A doji near 0.00003500 suggests indecision and possible short-term consolidation.

On moving averages, the 20-period and 50-period lines on the 15-minute chart have both turned bearish, crossing below price action. For daily timeframes, the 50-, 100-, and 200-period MAs remain in a downtrend, indicating medium-term bearish bias. The 50/100 crossover on the daily chart suggests a deeper pullback may be forming.

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Relative Strength Index (RSI) hit a low of 24, entering oversold territory, suggesting a potential short-term bounce. However, the bearish divergence in the histogram indicates continued selling pressure. The MACD line turned negative, with the histogram shrinking, reflecting weaker bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands show a moderate expansion, with price sitting near the lower band, supporting a temporary bounce scenario.

The volume profile shows a sharp spike during the initial breakdown to 0.00003426, followed by a sharp contraction as the price consolidates. Notional turnover has not increased proportionally with the price decline, indicating possible exhaustion of the short-term sellers. A divergence in volume and price is forming, hinting at a possible short-covering rally. However, this should be confirmed by a retest of the 0.00003426 support level.

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the key swing low to high show 38.2% at 0.00003550 and 61.8% at 0.00003610. A retest of these levels could provide short-term resistance, offering a possible entry point for bears. The 50% retracement at 0.00003545 may act as a pivot point for the near-term trend. If the price fails to hold above this level, further bearish moves are likely.

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Looking ahead, a break below 0.00003385 would confirm a deeper pullback toward 0.00003300, whereas a rebound above 0.00003550 could trigger a short-term bounce. Investors should watch for volume confirmation and divergence in momentum indicators, as these will be critical in determining the next directional move. As always, volatility remains high, and sudden shifts in sentiment could accelerate price movement in either direction.

The technical signals used in the backtest—namely MACD Death Cross—failed to produce a viable trading strategy for LUNCUSDT. While the Death Cross did appear 17 times in the dataset, it resulted in only five winning trades, indicating a poor win rate of 29.4%. The average loss per trade was 17.1%, with the portfolio suffering a total loss of 28.2% and a 95% drawdown at some point. This highlights the inefficiency of using the MACD Death Cross as a standalone entry signal, especially in a volatile, bearish market like LUNCUSDT. The analysis aligns with the observed bearish momentum and volume divergence, reinforcing the idea that a buy-on-decline approach using this signal is unprofitable and high-risk. Investors should consider combining multiple indicators and filtering signals with additional volume and price confirmation before executing trades.