Market Overview: Terra Classic/Tether (LUNCUSDT) on 2025-11-10

Summary
• Price opened at $0.00003762 and closed slightly lower at $0.00003768, with a high of $0.00003796 and low of $0.00003689.
• RSI and MACD show mixed signals, suggesting potential consolidation after a volatile swing down.
• Volume remains elevated, with strong buying pressure in early morning ET.

LUNCUSDT opened at $0.00003762 on 2025-11-10 and closed at $0.00003768 by 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $0.00003796 and a low of $0.00003689. Total volume for the 24-hour window reached 16.14 billion LUNC, with notional turnover at approximately $602.7 million. The price action reflects a mixed trend, with bearish and bullish signals coexisting.

Structure & Formations

On the 15-minute chart, a bearish engulfing pattern appeared at the peak of the daily move, followed by a consolidation phase around $0.0000375–$0.0000377. This range appears to be forming a key support cluster. A doji near $0.00003733 at 17:45 ET suggests indecision, while a small bullish hammer at 05:45 ET hints at renewed buyer interest.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are closely aligned, indicating a flat trend with no clear bias. On the daily chart, the 50-day moving average remains above the 200-day line, but recent price action has begun to test the 100-day line. This suggests short-term uncertainty, though the longer-term trend remains mildly bullish.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned bearish after 21:00 ET, reflecting fading momentum on the downside. The RSI has since retreated from overbought territory, indicating that the sharp move up was followed by a correction. However, RSI remains above 50, suggesting that the bulls have not completely lost control, and a rebound into the 55–60 range could signal renewed strength.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased during the session, with the bands widening after the 00:00 ET reversal. The price has spent much of the session inside the upper band, with a brief dip into the lower band around $0.00003689. This suggests a volatile but range-bound session, with a key test of the lower band now acting as potential support.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early part of the session, peaking at $0.00003796. Despite the price dip later in the day, volume remained high, suggesting continued participation. Notional turnover peaked at $5.6 million during the bearish engulfing formation at 20:15 ET, confirming the bearish signal with strong liquidity.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level was reached at $0.00003733, coinciding with a doji at 17:45 ET. Price later retraced to the 0.382 level at $0.00003769, which may now serve as a potential pivot. Daily swings also align with the 0.382 and 0.618 levels, suggesting key support/resistance zones for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

To run an event-backtest on the “Bearish Engulfing” pattern, we would examine how the formation performed on LUNCUSDT at 20:15 ET. The pattern coincided with a high-volume sell-off and a strong correction, offering a valid short-term bearish trigger. A backtest would require identifying all instances of the pattern and measuring its success rate over multiple sessions across similar market conditions.