Market Overview: Terra Classic/Tether (LUNCUSDT) - 2025-11-05

Summary
• Price retreated from a morning high of $0.00003828, closing near $0.00003722 amid fading bullish momentum.
• Volatility remained moderate with Bollinger Bands tightening toward the session's close.
• Volume surged during a late-night rebound attempt, but failed to confirm a sustained reversal.

Terra Classic/Tether (LUNCUSDT) opened at $0.00003821 and reached a high of $0.00003828 before declining to a low of $0.00003610. It closed at $0.00003722. The 24-hour volume totaled approximately 135,750,000,000 tokens, while notional turnover hit $5,032,749. The pair displayed a bearish bias for most of the day, though late-session volume hinted at short-term stabilization.

The structure of the session reflected a bearish bias, with a notable bearish engulfing pattern forming early in the morning at around $0.00003807, followed by a series of lower highs and lower closes. Key support was found near $0.00003650, which held during the late-night rebound. Resistance remains at $0.00003828, where price previously struggled. A doji formed during the rebound, suggesting indecision.

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages remained bearish, with the price consistently below the 20SMA. Daily moving averages (50D, 100D, 200D) were also bearish, reinforcing the short-term downtrend. The RSI oscillated between 30–50, indicating moderate bearish momentum but not oversold conditions. MACD lines remained negative, with a shrinking histogram suggesting a potential pause in the bearish move.

Bollinger Bands tightened toward the session’s end, pointing to a possible contraction in volatility. Price hovered near the lower band during the bearish phase but tested the upper band during the late rebound. Fibonacci retracements from the key swing high of $0.00003828 and swing low of $0.00003610 indicated key levels at 38.2% (~$0.00003776) and 61.8% (~$0.00003713). The closing price aligned with the 61.8% level, adding some technical significance to the support.

Volume spiked during the late-night rebound, with notional turnover surging to $168 million in the 15-minute interval ending at 03:00 ET. This suggests short-term buyers were active but failed to push above $0.00003750. A divergence emerged between volume and price, as the latter failed to follow the increased volume higher—a sign of potential exhaustion.

Given the recent pattern and metrics, LUNCUSDT may test key resistance at $0.00003750–$0.00003776 in the next 24 hours. A break above this could signal a short-term reversal, but a failure to hold above $0.00003713 may invite renewed bearishness. Investors should remain cautious of the broader bearish trend.

The backtest strategy analyzed a "bearish engulfing" candlestick pattern on BTC-USD from 2022–2025. The results showed that the pattern generated statistically significant short-term bearish pressure (–0.47% average return the next day), though it faded quickly. These findings are relevant to LUNCUSDT, which exhibited a similar bearish engulfing pattern. The results imply that such patterns may offer limited short-term trading opportunities but lack sustained edge over 5–30 days. In LUNCUSDT’s case, a similar short-term bearish approach may yield limited gains unless paired with tighter risk controls or a more liquid environment.