Market Overview for Terra Classic/Tether (LUNCUSDT) – 2025-11-02

• LUNCUSDT declined 10.8% over 24 hours, with bearish momentum intensifying in early trading
• Price action failed to hold key resistance around $0.000044, triggering a pullback
• Volume spiked during the sell-off, but turnover confirmed bearish bias
• RSI indicates oversold conditions, yet downward trend remains intact

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-11-02, Terra Classic/Tether (LUNCUSDT) opened at $0.00004339, surged to a high of $0.00004433, and fell to a low of $0.00004215 before closing at $0.00004277 at 12:00 ET. The pair recorded 5.85 billion USD in notional turnover on 17.98 billion LUNC traded.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick structure of LUNCUSDT reveals a bearish bias, particularly after the price broke below the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) on the 15-minute chart. A notable bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 20:00 ET, confirming a shift in sentiment. Key resistance levels appear at $0.00004400 and $0.00004430, while immediate support is seen near $0.00004250 and $0.00004200. A potential double-bottom structure forms at the lower end of the range, though the formation is incomplete without a clear breakout.

Moving Averages & Momentum Indicators

The 20-period and 50-period EMAs on the 15-minute chart are in bearish alignment, both sloping downward. The daily chart shows the 50-period EMA crossing below the 200-period SMA, signaling a bearish trend continuation. The 12-period MACD line crossed below the signal line early in the session, reinforcing bearish momentum. RSI has dropped below 30, indicating oversold conditions, but without a strong rebound, the pair may remain pressured near current levels.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Volatility has expanded as the price has moved closer to the lower Bollinger Band, particularly in the early morning hours. This suggests heightened bearish participation and potential exhaustion if a rebound fails to occur. The bands remain wide, consistent with an ongoing trend move rather than a consolidation phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased significantly during the sell-off phase, especially between 20:00 and 21:00 ET, aligning with a sharp decline in price. Notional turnover (USD volume) also rose in line with price action, confirming the bearish bias. Divergence was not observed; however, buyers have shown limited willingness to defend key support levels.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from $0.00004382 (high) to $0.00004215 (low), the 61.8% retracement level currently sits at $0.00004283, coinciding with the current price level. A break below this level could target $0.00004250 (38.2%) and eventually $0.00004200 (major support). On the daily chart, retracement levels from the last high align with the 61.8% at $0.00004270, suggesting a key level to watch for near-term stability.

Backtest Hypothesis

To evaluate the bearish trend continuation observed in LUNCUSDT, a backtest could be structured around the bearish engulfing pattern seen in the 20:00 ET candle. A practical backtest strategy could involve entering a short position at the close of the engulfing pattern or the next day's open, with a stop-loss placed just above the high of the pattern. An exit rule could then be triggered on the first daily close below the engulfing low. By analyzing the price action and volume confirmation, this setup could be evaluated for profitability across similar historical patterns in the LUNCUSDT pair.