Market Overview for Terra Classic/Tether (LUNCUSDT) on 2025-10-11

• Terra Classic/Tether (LUNCUSDT) experienced a sharp bearish move from $0.000051 to $0.000036, with a 24-hour low near $0.000016.
• Key support levels tested at $0.000036 and $0.000020, both showing moderate buying interest in the final 12 hours.
• Momentum turned positive after 09:00 ET, with a 3.2% rebound from the 24-hour low and RSI entering neutral territory.
• Volatility remained elevated through the first half of the period due to rapid price declines but has since compressed.
• Turnover surged during the sharp drop to $0.000016, but volume has remained stable in the recovery phase, indicating potential accumulation.

Terra Classic/Tether (LUNCUSDT) opened at $0.000051 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $0.000051 and a low of $0.000016 before closing at $0.000036 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-11. Total traded volume amounted to $112.8 billion, with a notional turnover of $5.97 billion across the 24-hour period. The session featured one large bearish move and a partial recovery in the afternoon hours.

Structure and formations suggest strong bearish control early on, with a large bearish candle forming at the 21:00 ET time frame, breaking through critical support and opening the door to further declines. A moderate bullish reversal formed by 16:00 ET the next day, with a bullish harami pattern at $0.000036–$0.000038, hinting at short-term stabilization. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both sloped downward during the bearish leg, aligning with the strong negative momentum.

Momentum indicators reflect this bearish-to-bullish transition. The MACD line crossed below the signal line early in the bearish leg, confirming bearish momentum, but later turned positive by 09:00 ET, aligning with the price rebound. The RSI dropped to 20 at the session low, signaling oversold conditions, and has since risen to mid-40s, suggesting exhaustion of the bearish move. Bollinger Bands showed significant expansion during the sharp drop and have since narrowed, indicating reduced volatility. Price remains in the upper third of the bands as of the final hour, favoring a continuation of the recovery trend.

Volume and turnover patterns reinforce the narrative of a bearish breakdown followed by consolidation. The largest volume spike occurred at 19:30 ET with a $2.29 billion trade, coinciding with the sharp drop to $0.000016. Subsequent volume remained moderate, with a 20% decline in turnover during the recovery phase despite a 3.2% price rebound. This divergence suggests that the bearish pressure may not be fully dissipated, and further testing of the $0.000036–$0.000038 range could occur. Fibonacci retracements from the 19:30 ET move indicate key levels at $0.000026 (38.2%) and $0.000018 (61.8%), both of which saw moderate price action in the recovery.

The market appears to be in a transitional phase, with short-term bulls attempting to reestablish control after a sharp bearish breakdown. While the immediate support at $0.000036 appears to hold, further consolidation is likely before any meaningful bearish or bullish breakout. Investors should remain cautious for another possible test of the $0.000036–$0.000038 range in the next 24 hours, with key risk lying in the potential for renewed bearish pressure if volume does not confirm the rally.

Backtest Hypothesis
The described backtesting strategy, which involves entering a short position on a bearish breakout below a key support level (e.g., $0.000036) and a long position on a bullish rebound from that level, aligns well with the observed price action. A short entry at $0.000036 with a stop above $0.000038 would have captured the bearish leg to $0.000016, while a long entry at $0.000036–$0.000038 with a stop below $0.000035 would have captured the subsequent rebound. However, given the moderate volume and turnover during the rebound, the strategy may need to incorporate tighter risk management and position sizing adjustments for smaller-cap pairs like LUNCUSDT. The strategy could be further refined by incorporating RSI and Bollinger Band width as volatility and momentum filters.