Market Overview for Terra Classic/Tether (LUNCUSDT) – 2025-10-10 24-Hour

• Price surged 28% over 24 hours, breaking above 5.3e-05 with strong volume confirmation.
• RSI entered overbought territory near 72, signaling potential momentum exhaustion.
• Volatility spiked post-15:00 ET, with Bollinger Bands widening as price diverged from midline.
• Key resistance at 5.35e-05 and support at 5.25e-05 showed mixed control across 15-minute intervals.

The Terra Classic/Tether (LUNCUSDT) pair opened at 5.274e-05 on 2025-10-09 12:00 ET and reached a high of 5.442e-05 before closing at 5.313e-05 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-10. Total 24-hour volume amounted to 23,967,398,405.53, with a notional turnover of $123.44 million. Price action showed a bullish breakout and consolidation at key levels, with volatility and momentum signaling mixed signals.

Structure and candlestick formations revealed a distinct upward bias during the 24-hour period. A strong bullish engulfing pattern emerged around 22:30 ET as price surged from 5.353e-05 to 5.371e-05, indicating strong buying pressure. Multiple higher lows and a consistent close above mid-Bollinger Bands during the 5.3e-05 to 5.38e-05 range reinforced a bullish bias. However, a bearish harami pattern formed at 05:15 ET (5.394e-05 to 5.37e-05), hinting at possible profit-taking or distribution.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a bullish crossover between 20 and 50 SMA from 5.32e-05 to 5.34e-05 around 03:30 ET. On the daily chart, the 50 SMA sat at ~5.28e-05, with the 200 SMA at ~5.19e-05, reinforcing that LUNCUSDT has moved decisively above critical psychological support and into a new upward trend. Price has held above the 200 SMA for the past two days, suggesting a shift in the medium-term trend.

MACD showed a bullish divergence in the final four hours of the 24-hour period, with a positive crossover occurring at 08:00 ET. RSI peaked at 72.5 at 04:45 ET, signaling overbought conditions. Despite the overbought reading, price continued higher until 07:00 ET, when a bearish divergence emerged as volume failed to confirm bullish momentum. Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the late hours of the 24-hour period, indicating a surge in volatility. Price closed near the upper band, suggesting strong conviction in the bullish move.

Volume and turnover were particularly noteworthy in two phases: a sustained increase in volume between 19:00 and 21:00 ET as price moved from 5.33e-05 to 5.349e-05, and a sharp spike at 04:00 ET as price tested the 5.43e-05 level. The latter was accompanied by a 25% jump in turnover, confirming institutional or large-scale buying activity. However, volume collapsed after 07:00 ET as price moved sideways, signaling potential exhaustion.

Fibonacci retracements from the 5.3e-05 to 5.43e-05 swing identified key levels at 5.366e-05 (38.2%) and 5.327e-05 (61.8%). Price tested the 38.2% level multiple times between 06:00 and 08:00 ET but failed to break through. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level of the larger swing from 5.19e-05 to 5.43e-05 lies at 5.30e-05, which has shown signs of resistance in the past 15-minute candles.

Backtest Hypothesis
The proposed backtesting strategy involves entering a long position when LUNCUSDT closes above the 20-period SMA on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bullish engulfing pattern and a RSI above 55. A stop-loss is placed at the 50-period SMA or the nearest Fibonacci support level. Exits are triggered when the 15-minute MACD line crosses below the signal line or when RSI exceeds 75 and price shows a bearish reversal pattern. Given the recent price action and technical alignment, this strategy appears well-suited to capture short-term bullish momentum while managing downside risk through tight stop levels and Fibonacci retracement targets.