Market Overview for Terra Classic/Tether (LUNCUSDT) on 2025-09-14

• Price action formed a bullish reversal pattern late in the session, with a final close above 6.194e-05.
• Volatility expanded during the overnight session, with a high of 6.206e-05 and low of 6.061e-05.
• Notional turnover reached a peak at 994.5M USD in the early morning, aligning with a key breakout.
• RSI briefly dipped into oversold territory but failed to confirm a new bearish trend.
• Bollinger Bands showed a wide expansion after a mid-session contraction, indicating renewed uncertainty.

LUNCUSDT opened at 6.157e-05 at 12:00 ET − 1 and closed at 6.194e-05 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 6.206e-05 and a low of 6.061e-05. Total 24-hour volume was 21.15B USD, and notional turnover reached 994.5M USD at its peak.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute OHLCV data showed a clear bullish reversal pattern forming from 03:00–06:00 ET, with a key higher low at 6.061e-05. A bearish engulfing pattern occurred at 17:15 ET, confirming a short-term pullback. A morning doji around 02:00 ET signaled indecision, followed by a sharp rebound. A key support level formed at 6.117e-05, and resistance at 6.206e-05 appears to be holding for now.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed above the 20- and 50-period moving averages, suggesting a short-term uptrend. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-day moving averages are diverging, with price currently above both, indicating a potential continuation of the bullish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above zero during the early morning session, confirming the bullish reversal. The RSI briefly dipped below 30 but did not hold, reaching a high of 56.8 at 06:00 ET. While not overbought, it suggests a lack of bearish conviction. Momentum appears to be picking up in favor of the bulls, with a strong signal line crossing the histogram positively.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a contraction between 17:00 and 19:00 ET, followed by a sharp expansion in the overnight session. Price traded near the upper band at 6.206e-05, signaling a potential overbought condition. The bands remain wide, suggesting elevated volatility and market uncertainty, with traders closely watching for a reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 994.5M USD at 02:00 ET, coinciding with a sharp price rebound. The peak turnover occurred just as price tested the 6.206e-05 level, suggesting increased buying interest. Volume was also elevated at 17:15 ET during a bearish engulfing pattern, confirming the short-term pullback. Overall, volume and price action are aligned, with no major divergence observed.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels identified key support at 6.117e-05 (61.8%) and 6.136e-05 (38.2%) during the overnight decline. Price found strong support at the 61.8% level, which may act as a floor for the next 24 hours. On the 15-minute chart, the 61.8% retracement at 6.194e-05 was briefly tested and held, suggesting continued bullish momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions when price breaks above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bullish engulfing pattern and a MACD crossover above zero. A stop-loss could be placed below the 38.2% retracement level at 6.136e-05, with a take-profit target near the upper Bollinger Band at 6.206e-05. This approach aligns with the observed momentum and could capture a continuation of the short-term bullish trend, provided volatility remains elevated.