Market Overview: Tensor/Tether (TNSRUSDT) on 2025-10-08

• TNSRUSDT traded within a 0.0961–0.0999 range, closing near 0.0978 after forming a bearish harami pattern.
• RSI fell into oversold territory below 30, suggesting a potential short-term rebound ahead.
• Volatility expanded in the early hours before contracting midday, reflecting a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed at 08:00 ET, hinting at a possible breakout or consolidation.
• Volume spiked at 19:00 ET and again at 08:45 ET, coinciding with key price retracements from recent swing highs.

The Tensor/Tether (TNSRUSDT) pair opened at 0.0979 on 2025-10-07 at 12:00 ET, hit a high of 0.0999, and closed at 0.0978 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-08. The 24-hour volume totaled approximately 5.85 million, while notional turnover came in at roughly $589,000. Price action showed bearish exhaustion in the late hours, with a final bearish harami pattern signaling possible consolidation ahead.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart reveals a bearish harami formation near 0.0982–0.0984, which suggests a potential pause or reversal in the downward trend. A key support level appears to be forming around 0.0970–0.0975, where price has bounced multiple times in the past 24 hours. Resistance levels at 0.0985–0.0987 and 0.0990–0.0992 remain critical to watch for a potential bearish continuation.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute timeframe, the 20-period MA is currently at 0.0980, while the 50-period MA sits at 0.0982, indicating a slight bearish bias. The 50-period MA on the daily chart (not shown) is above the current price, reinforcing the short-term bearish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has turned negative, with the histogram showing a bearish divergence relative to price, especially in the latter half of the day. RSI dipped below 30 in the overnight session, reaching 27 at 03:30 ET, suggesting the pair may see a short-term bounce. However, the inability to reclaim above 0.0985 may limit any meaningful upside.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have shown a noticeable contraction between 08:00 and 09:00 ET, with the price hovering near the lower band. This volatility contraction suggests a potential breakout, but the subsequent price action has remained within the channel. A sustained close above 0.0986 could signal a shift toward a bullish setup.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked twice—once at 19:00 ET and again at 08:45 ET—coinciding with price retracements from recent swing highs. However, these spikes were not accompanied by corresponding increases in turnover, indicating a potential lack of conviction from buyers. Notably, volume has been declining in the last four hours, suggesting a possible consolidation phase.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the 0.0970–0.0999 swing include 0.0983 (38.2%), 0.0986 (50%), and 0.0989 (61.8%). Price has tested the 50% level multiple times but has failed to hold above it, suggesting bearish control. A break below 0.0970 could see further retesting of the 0.0965 level, which is the 78.6% retracement level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering a short position when the RSI falls below 30 and price closes below the 50-period MA, with a stop-loss set just above the most recent swing high. This setup would aim to capture short-term bearish momentum, especially when confirmed by declining volume. Given today’s chart behavior, this strategy may have triggered a short signal around 03:30–04:00 ET and would remain in play as long as price remains below 0.0985.