Market Overview: Tellor/Bitcoin (TRBBTC) on 2025-09-18

• Price rallied 0.3% in 24 hours amid rising volume and bullish momentum.
• Key resistance appears near 0.000324–0.000328, with intraday bullish reversal patterns.
• MACD and RSI suggest overbought conditions, with potential for consolidation.
• Volatility expanded overnight, reflecting renewed buying pressure post 18:00 ET.

Tellor/Bitcoin (TRBBTC) opened at 0.000305 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.000328, and closed at 0.000321 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-18. Total volume traded in the last 24 hours was 589.917 BTC-equivalent, with notional turnover of $185.57 USD (assuming $60,000 BTC).

The 24-hour price action displayed a strong upward bias, with the price forming a bullish breakout above 0.000322 and consolidating at 0.000321 by the close. A series of strong 15-minute candles emerged between 19:30 ET and 03:00 ET, with volume spiking on the breakout above 0.000322. The pattern suggests a potential continuation of the bullish trend, although the RSI at 72 and MACD crossover into overbought territory indicate a possible short-term pullback.

Bollinger Bands reflected a period of expansion after a consolidation phase, with price closing near the upper band. This suggests heightened volatility. Fibonacci retracement levels from the 0.000305–0.000328 swing show the price near 78.6% of that move, a key area for potential near-term support or reversal. The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have shifted upward, reinforcing the near-term bullish bias.

Price action may test 0.000328 as resistance, with 0.000321–0.000322 offering a critical near-term pivot. If the 0.000322 level holds, the next target could be 0.000325–0.000326. A breakdown below 0.000321 may indicate a pullback to 0.000315–0.000318, but with volume still supporting a strong short-term bias. Investors should monitor the 0.000322–0.000324 range closely for directional clues.

Backtest Hypothesis
Given the recent bullish breakout above 0.000322 and the alignment of the 20- and 50-period moving averages, a simple backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions at the close of a bullish 15-minute candle that closes above 0.000322, with a stop-loss placed below 0.000321. A take-profit target could be set at the 0.000325–0.000326 Fibonacci level. Over the last 24 hours, this approach would have captured a 0.15% gain from 0.000321 to 0.000322, with the potential for additional 0.3% if the trend extends. The MACD and RSI, however, suggest caution in overextending long positions without confirming follow-through on volume.