Market Overview for TAOBTC (Bittensor/Bitcoin) – 2025-09-24

• Price dropped from 0.002794 to 0.002753 over 24 hours amid mixed volume.
• RSI and MACD suggest weakening bullish momentum, with RSI near neutral.
• Volatility remains elevated; Bollinger Bands show price within 1σ range.
• Key support around 0.002755–0.002758 tested multiple times; resistance near 0.002780.
• Downtrend appears to consolidate, with potential for short-term rebound from 0.002755.

Opening Summary

Bittensor/Bitcoin (TAOBTC) opened at 0.002794 at 12:00 ET-1, reached a high of 0.002806, and hit a low of 0.002742 before closing at 0.002753 at 12:00 ET today. The 24-hour volume was 205.789 BTC, with a notional turnover of approximately $566.73 (assuming a $38,000 BTC price).

Structure & Formations

Price action over the last 24 hours shows a bearish consolidation pattern, with a series of lower highs and lower lows dominating the latter half of the session. Notable bearish engulfing patterns emerged after the 19:00 ET drop, confirming a shift in sentiment. A large-bodied candle at 203000 ET (volume: 131.557 BTC) marked a sharp bearish reversal. A potential support cluster formed around 0.002755–0.002758 after multiple retests, while resistance appears to be forming near 0.002780 and 0.002787, which the price briefly breached earlier in the session.

Moving Averages (15-min Chart)

On the 15-min chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both above the current price, reinforcing the short-term bearish bias. The 20SMA crossed below the 50SMA at 0.002784 during the afternoon, confirming a bearish crossover. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) are also above current price action, suggesting further consolidation or a test of key support could follow.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has moved below the signal line and is negative, indicating bearish momentum. RSI has settled in the 45–50 range, signaling a neutral to slightly bearish phase with no signs of overbought or oversold conditions. This suggests the market is in a period of consolidation rather than a decisive trend.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands are moderately wide, reflecting elevated volatility. Price remains within the 1σ range for most of the day, indicating a lack of extreme price swings. A contraction in band width occurred briefly during the 02:00–04:00 ET period before expanding again following the large sell-off.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased sharply during the bearish reversal at 203000 ET, with the largest single 15-min candle contributing 131.557 BTC, confirming the move lower. Notional turnover also spiked in this period, aligning with the price drop. A divergence in volume and price is observed during the 09:00–11:00 ET consolidation phase, where price drifted lower with decreasing volume, hinting at weak follow-through in the bearish trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels drawn from the 0.002742 low to the 0.002806 high show that price has consolidated around the 61.8% (0.002766) and 50% (0.002774) levels, with key support at 0.002755–0.002758 near the 38.2% level. These retracement levels are acting as a magnet for price, with repeated bounces and retests over the past 15 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy under consideration involves using a 50-period EMA on the 15-min chart as a trend-following signal. When price crosses above the EMA, a long position is triggered, and when it crosses below, a short position is opened. This is combined with a 50-period RSI divergence filter to avoid false signals. The strategy would have entered short positions during the 19:00–20:30 ET move lower and exited or reduced exposure during the 02:00–04:00 ET consolidation. The recent 15-min data supports the strategy’s logic, with RSI divergence and EMA crossovers providing clear signals.