Market Overview for SynFutures/Turkish Lira (FTRY)

Summary
• Price declined from 0.5295 to 0.4838 amid bearish momentum.
• Volume surged to 7.7M contracts early, with turnover diverging from price.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions mid-day, but no reversal formed.

SynFutures/Turkish Lira (FTRY) opened at 0.5295 at 12:00 ET–1 and traded between 0.5327 and 0.4587 over the next 24 hours, closing at 0.4838 at 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 77,346,950 contracts, with a notional turnover of approximately $37,164,783.

The 15-minute chart shows a bearish bias, with price falling below key moving averages. The 20-period and 50-period SMAs on the 15-minute chart were above current price levels, confirming the downtrend. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 SMAs are all sloping downward, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend is likely.

MACD crossed into negative territory early in the session, and RSI dropped into oversold levels (around 30) after a sharp sell-off. However, no bullish reversal formed despite this. Bollinger Bands show recent expansion, suggesting increased volatility. Price has been trading near the lower band, reinforcing bearish pressure.

Volume peaked at 7.7M contracts early in the session but declined significantly after 20:00 ET–1. This divergence suggests waning conviction in the short-term move lower. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared around 17:00 ET–1, but price failed to follow through with a clear reversal. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is now acting as a dynamic support at ~0.4780–0.4820.

Backtest Hypothesis: A backtest strategy based on RSI (14) and candlestick patterns could be explored. An entry rule of RSI < 30 and a Bullish-Engulfing candle could be tested with an exit at RSI > 70 or a Bearish-Engulfing candle, whichever occurs first. Given the current RSI has just touched 30, and a potential bullish reversal candle appears, this could be an entry trigger.