Market Overview for SynFutures/Turkish Lira (FTRY) – 24-Hour Analysis

• The SynFutures/Turkish Lira pair (FTRY) recorded a 24-hour low of 0.4641 and high of 0.526, with a close near 0.472.• A significant volatility spike occurred after 03:00 ET, with a rally from 0.4736 to 0.526, representing a ~11% move in under 45 minutes.• Volumes were uneven, with the largest 15-minute notional turnover of ~2.7M at the height of the 05:30 ET upswing, while the daily close saw low turnover.

FTRY opened at 0.4795 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.4720 on 2025-11-13 at 12:00 ET, trading as low as 0.4641 and as high as 0.526. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 9.3 million units, and total notional turnover was approximately 4.4 million USD. A sharp price rebound occurred around 05:30 ET, followed by a consolidation phase and a gradual retracement.

Structure & Formations

Over the 24-hour period, FTRY displayed a volatile but ultimately bearish structure. Key support levels emerged around 0.469 and 0.464, with a temporary resistance at 0.474–0.476. A large bullish engulfing pattern formed around 05:30 ET, followed by a bearish harami at 06:15 ET, suggesting indecision after the sharp rally. A doji at 06:30 ET confirmed weakening momentum, while the final candle of the 24-hour period (12:00 ET) closed slightly below the open, indicating bearish pressure.

Moving Averages and MACD / RSI

On the 15-minute chart, FTRY crossed above its 20-period and 50-period moving averages briefly around 05:45–06:00 ET, signaling short-term bullish momentum. However, the RSI-14 reached 75 during the 05:30–06:15 ET window, indicating overbought conditions, followed by a sharp drop below 50. MACD showed a strong positive crossover at the peak of the 05:30 ET rally but failed to maintain bullish momentum, with the histogram quickly contracting. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA remains above the 100- and 200-period MAs, reflecting a mildly bearish trend.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 05:30–06:00 ET rally, with FTRY reaching a high of 0.526, nearly 12% above the 20-period moving average. Price quickly retracted toward the lower band by 07:00 ET, suggesting a potential mean reversion scenario. The low volatility in the final hours, with prices hovering near the mid-band, indicated consolidation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 05:30–06:15 ET period, with the largest single 15-minute notional turnover occurring at 05:30 ET (approximately $2.7 million). Volume then dropped sharply as the pair retracted. A divergence between price action and volume after 07:00 ET suggested weakening momentum and a potential bearish continuation. Notable volume spikes occurred at 05:30 ET, 22:30 ET, and 03:00–04:00 ET, with minimal turnover observed in the final 6 hours.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, FTRY’s 05:30 ET rally reached the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the prior bearish leg, suggesting a high-probability reversal point. However, the subsequent retracement to 0.474–0.476 fell short of the 38.2% level, indicating a possible continuation of the bearish trend. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level of the broader bullish leg (from 0.464 to 0.476) is at 0.471, aligning with the closing price and reinforcing this as a potential near-term support.

Backtest Hypothesis

In the context of a potential backtesting strategy for FTRY, the RSI-14 has shown overbought conditions during sharp moves and divergences when momentum wanes, making it a viable tool for identifying potential trend reversals. A backtest could be built around RSI-14 crossings below 30 (oversold) or above 70 (overbought), combined with Fibonacci retracement levels as potential support/resistance targets. For example, a long entry at 05:30 ET may have captured the bullish move had an overbought signal been confirmed, but the lack of follow-through volume suggested a trap.

Alternatively, the 06:15–06:30 ET candlestick pattern, including a bearish harami and doji, could have served as a short entry point if RSI had confirmed oversold conditions. The key takeaway is that FTRY’s price structure and volume are sensitive to Fibonacci levels and RSI divergence, making them valuable inputs for a mechanical trading hypothesis.