Market Overview for SynFutures/Turkish Lira (FTRY) - 2025-11-12

Summary• Price closed lower at 0.4892, down from the previous open of 0.5055, after a volatile 24-hour swing.• Momentum remains weak with RSI near oversold territory, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce.• Volume surged in early ET hours but has since trended lower, signaling fading conviction in the move.• Price tested and broke key Fibonacci levels, confirming bearish continuation.• Volatility is elevated, with Bollinger Bands widening, pointing to active market participation.

Overview and Key Metrics

SynFutures/Turkish Lira (FTRY) opened at 0.5055 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.4892 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.5086 and a low of 0.4761. The 24-hour total volume amounted to 19,329,606.0 and the notional turnover was $9,856,876.00. Price action suggests a bearish continuation amid high volatility and mixed momentum.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the 24-hour period displayed multiple bearish patterns, including a long lower shadow on the 18:15 ET candle (0.5028–0.5017) and a deep bearish engulfing pattern at 19:30 ET (0.491–0.4878). The price broke below the 0.5008 support level on the 18:45 ET candle, which acted as a critical pivot point for the trend. Notable resistance was observed at 0.5016 (high of 17:45 ET candle) and key support at 0.4944 (close of 18:45 ET candle). Daily pivot levels (S1/R1) appear to be in alignment with key Fibonacci retracement levels from the major swing high at 0.5086.

Moving Averages and Momentum Indicators

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have both trended lower over the past 24 hours, reinforcing the bearish bias. The MACD has remained in negative territory, with a narrowing histogram and a slow-moving signal line suggesting weakening bearish momentum. The RSI dipped into oversold territory (around 32) by the close of the 08:15 ET candle (0.4867), hinting at potential for a short-term bounce. However, the lack of bullish confirmation in the form of a bullish divergence or a clear breakout above 0.4903 remains a key concern.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Volatility has been elevated throughout the session, with Bollinger Bands expanding significantly in the early hours of the morning. Price action frequently touched the lower band and occasionally the upper band, especially around the 08:00–10:45 ET timeframe. This suggests active participation from both longs and shorts. The 10:45 ET candle (0.4907–0.4872) saw the price retrace back to the middle band after a sharp drop, indicating a potential zone of interest for near-term traders.

Fibonacci and Key Levels

Fibonacci retracement levels on the 24-hour swing from 0.5086 to 0.4761 show the price has now reached the 61.8% level (approximately 0.4879), a critical psychological and technical barrier. The 38.2% (0.4977) and 50% (0.4923) levels were both tested and failed to hold. Traders may now look to the 61.8% level as potential support or a pivot point for a short-term rebound.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current structure and behavior of the FTRY pair, the proposed backtest strategy—using daily pivot levels (S1/R1) as entry and exit triggers—could align well with the observed price action. For example, the price closed below S1 on the prior session and continued lower, which would have triggered a long entry at the open of the next session in a bearish context. However, given the current bearish bias and the fact that R1 was breached, any bullish exit condition is unlikely without a strong reversal. The pivot strategy would suggest holding the position and recalculating pivots based on the latest swing high and low. This strategy could provide a rules-based approach to trading the current trend, but it would benefit from the addition of a stop-loss to manage downside risk.