Market Overview: SynFutures/Turkish Lira (FTRY) on 2025-11-03

• SynFutures/Turkish Lira (FTRY) traded lower over the last 24 hours, closing at 0.5163 after hitting a high of 0.588 and a low of 0.5112.
• Momentum weakened in the latter half of the session, with RSI hitting oversold territory below 30.
• Volatility surged early in the day but contracted sharply in the final 8 hours.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged near 0.588, signaling potential bearish exhaustion.
• Turnover spiked during early trading but diverged from price as the pair continued to decline.

SynFutures/Turkish Lira (FTRY) opened at 0.5771 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at 0.5163 by 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 0.588 and a low of 0.5112 during the session. Total volume was 20,846,541, and notional turnover was $9,878,595. The extended sell-off indicates a possible breakdown in near-term structure.

Structure & Formations

A bearish engulfing candle at 0.588 marks a key reversal failure, followed by a breakdown to 0.5112. A descending triangle appears in the 15-minute chart, with resistance around 0.5758 and support at 0.5517. A doji near 0.5517 in the early morning suggests short-term exhaustion, though buyers have not reasserted control.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages are in a steep downtrend, confirming the bearish bias. The daily chart shows the 50-period MA at 0.5527 and the 200-period MA at 0.5403, indicating the pair is below both, signaling bearish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The RSI dropped below 30 late morning and hovered near 25 in the latter half of the session, indicating oversold conditions. The MACD crossed into negative territory with a bearish divergence in the histogram, suggesting continued downward pressure.

Bollinger Bands

The price has been compressing between the Bollinger Bands over the last 8 hours, indicating low volatility. The narrow band contraction could precede a breakout, though the bias appears bearish based on the current trajectory.

Volume & Turnover

Volume peaked early in the day with a 15-minute bar of 3,959,239, coinciding with a sharp drop from 0.5732 to 0.57. However, in the final 8 hours, while the price continued to fall, volume declined, suggesting a lack of conviction in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels drawn from the high of 0.588 to the low of 0.5112 show the current price at 61.8% (0.528). A break below 50% (0.5496) may signal a deeper decline toward 38.2% (0.569), though such a move would require a reversal in sentiment.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the RSI reaching oversold levels and the bearish engulfing pattern, a potential short strategy might involve entering a trade at the close when RSI < 30 and exiting at the next day’s close. Historical testing would be needed to assess how frequently this signal has resulted in profitable trades, but the current setup suggests a high probability of continuation in the short term.

While the technicals point to a possible continuation of the bearish trend, investors should remain cautious about a potential bounce from key Fibonacci levels and watch for a volume rebound that could indicate a reversal. As always, trade with caution and use stop-loss orders to manage downside risk.