Market Overview for SushiSwap/Tether (SUSHIUSDT)

Summary

• • •• SUSHIUSDT fell to a 24-hour low of $0.4803 before recovering to close at $0.4875 amid heightened volatility.
• RSI reached oversold levels (below 30) for a brief period, suggesting potential short-term buying interest.
• Volume spiked during the 16:15–16:30 ET range, coinciding with a sharp decline in price.

Opening Observations

SushiSwap/Tether (SUSHIUSDT) opened at $0.5052 on 2025-11-11 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $0.5293 before closing at $0.4875 on 2025-11-12 12:00 ET. The 24-hour trading session recorded a total volume of 8,849,644.4 and a turnover of $4,386,715.85. The pair experienced significant price swings, with bearish momentum dominating the latter half of the session.

Structure & Formations

A key support level appears to have formed around the $0.4900–0.4950 range, where the price found buying interest multiple times. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 17:30–18:00 ET, signaling a strong reversal from $0.5101 to $0.5021. A doji formed near $0.4979, suggesting indecision and potential consolidation. On the flip side, resistance was seen near $0.5100–0.5150, with failed breakouts observed twice during the session.

MACD & RSI

The RSI hit an intraday low of 28.4 at 16:15 ET, indicating oversold conditions and raising the possibility of a short-term bounce. However, the recovery has been sluggish, and the RSI remains in the 30–40 range, signaling cautious optimism. The MACD line crossed below the signal line (bearish crossover) around 19:15 ET, confirming a shift in momentum. Negative MACD divergence is evident in the final hours, suggesting further downside potential unless bullish volume confirms a reversal.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded during the 16:15–16:30 ET range, aligning with the sharp price drop to $0.4803. Price tested the lower band multiple times but rebounded each time, suggesting the $0.4800–0.4900 range could serve as a key support cluster. Volatility began to contract in the final hours, indicating a potential pause in the downward move—though the direction remains uncertain without a clear breakout above the mid-band.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (SMA) dipped below the 50-period MA, forming a bearish “death cross” in the later hours of the session. This reinforces short-term bearish sentiment. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 100-period and 200-period MAs, suggesting medium-term bullish bias despite recent weakness.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels on the 15-minute chart from the recent high of $0.5293 to the low of $0.4803 show the 0.618 (around $0.4990) as a critical psychological level. Price tested this area twice without breaking through, suggesting it could hold as support in the short term. On the daily chart, the 0.382 level at ~$0.5050 coincided with the open of the session and may be a minor resistance ahead.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the 16:15–16:30 ET period (415,376.1 traded at ~$0.4963) when the price dropped sharply to $0.4803, confirming the bearish breakout. However, the subsequent rebound lacked sufficient volume to signal a reversal, suggesting the move remains bearish in nature. Notional turnover (volume × price) peaked at the same time, reinforcing the depth of the sell-off.

Backtest Hypothesis

A recent backtest explored a simple RSI-based strategy using overbought levels as entry triggers with a 5-day holding period. The results showed a total cumulative return of 28.8% and an annualized return of 14.1%, but the strategy endured a severe maximum drawdown of -62.9%. With a Sharpe ratio of 0.31, the returns barely justify the volatility. The average winning trade gained 18.2%, while losing trades averaged -7.8%. These findings highlight the need for refining the strategy—such as incorporating trend filters or dynamic exits—to better manage risk while capturing upside potential.