Market Overview for SushiSwap/Tether (SUSHIUSDT) — 2025-10-04

• Price declined from $0.7389 to $0.6846, forming bearish momentum and breaking below key support levels.
• RSI and MACD indicated bearish divergence and oversold conditions late in the session.
• Volatility expanded significantly, with Bollinger Bands widening, reflecting heightened uncertainty.
• Volume surged during the downward moves, confirming bearish pressure rather than signaling exhaustion.
• Fibonacci retracements suggest potential support at ~$0.6942, but a break below $0.6846 could trigger further decline.

SushiSwap/Tether (SUSHIUSDT) opened at $0.7219 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.6846 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $0.7389 and a low of $0.6816. Total volume was 3,602,928.1 with $2,553,447.3 in turnover. The pair experienced a strong bearish bias, marked by a breakdown below key moving averages and a bearish volume profile.

The price action revealed a strong bearish structure, with several notable bearish candlestick patterns, including a bearish engulfing pattern around 2025-10-03 16:00 and a long lower shadow at the close of the session, suggesting rejection of higher levels. Support levels appear to be forming at ~$0.7100, $0.6942, and $0.6816, with the latter showing some consolidation. Resistance is now at ~$0.7260 and $0.7389, where price previously failed to hold.

MACD crossed below zero, confirming bearish momentum, while RSI dipped into oversold territory (~29) near the close, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce but not a reversal. Bollinger Bands expanded as volatility increased, with price currently trading near the lower band, indicating bearish pressure. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both below price, reinforcing the downtrend.

Volume spiked during key downward moves, especially during the early hours of the session, confirming bearish sentiment. However, a divergence between price and RSI near the close suggests a potential pause or minor countertrend move. Fibonacci retracements from the $0.7389 high indicate potential support at 61.8% (~$0.6942) and 78.6% (~$0.6816), the latter being a critical psychological level. A break below $0.6816 may accelerate the decline toward $0.67.

A bearish continuation appears probable in the short term, with key support levels at $0.6942 and $0.6816 to watch. Traders should remain cautious of a breakdown below $0.6816, which could trigger further downside. However, an overbought RSI and bearish divergence may limit downside in the near term, offering potential for a short-term bounce.

Backtest Hypothesis
A backtest strategy could be built around a short-biased approach triggered when price breaks below a key Fibonacci level (e.g., 61.8% at $0.6942) on increasing volume, confirmed by a bearish MACD crossover and RSI below 30. A stop-loss could be placed above the nearest resistance level (~$0.7100), while a profit target might aim for the next Fibonacci level at $0.6816. This setup would align with the observed bearish momentum and support/resistance dynamics seen in the recent 15-minute data.