Market Overview for SuperRare/Tether (RAREUSDT) – 2025-09-16

• Price action trended lower after a morning rebound; key support tested.
• Momentum weakened with RSI below 50, but no overbought conditions.
• Volatility remained elevated, with Bollinger Bands expanding after early consolidation.
• Volume increased in late ET hours, but notional turnover failed to confirm bullish bias.
• Fibonacci levels suggest potential reversal near 0.0528 and 0.0531.

SuperRare/Tether (RAREUSDT) opened at $0.0529 on 2025-09-15 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.0536, and closed at $0.0542 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-16. The pair experienced total volume of 9,290,750.5 and a notional turnover of $492,138.50 over the 24-hour window. A bullish breakout in late ET hours appears to have driven buyers to test upper resistance levels.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bullish morning breakout pattern between 19:00 and 20:00 ET, followed by a consolidation phase and a breakout attempt in early ET hours. A key resistance level of $0.0536 was retested multiple times, while support levels at $0.0528 and $0.0524 held early in the session. A large bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 22:45 ET (RAREUSDT 0.0534 → 0.0533), signaling potential short-term bullish momentum. A doji appeared at 03:15 ET (RAREUSDT 0.0534 → 0.0534), indicating indecision at this level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period EMAs showed a bullish crossover at $0.0534, confirming the morning breakout. However, by late ET, the 50-period EMA caught up, suggesting a tightening of bullish momentum. The 50-period and 100-period SMAs on the daily chart showed a slight bearish bias, though the price remained above the 200-period SMA, indicating long-term support is still intact.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD showed a bullish crossover at $0.0535, aligning with the morning breakout. RSI trended up to 58 during this period but failed to enter overbought territory. A divergence between price and RSI at $0.0541 suggests caution for further bullish momentum. The 15-minute RSI currently sits at 52, reflecting moderate buying pressure but not extreme overbought levels.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion during the morning session as price moved above the upper band at $0.0535. Price subsequently traded within the bands for most of the day, with a brief retest of the upper band at $0.0541. Volatility contraction was noted between 01:00 and 02:00 ET, indicating a potential consolidation period before the next directional move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the morning breakout (19:45–20:30 ET) and again during the late ET breakout (05:00–06:30 ET), with corresponding increases in notional turnover. However, between 03:00 and 05:00 ET, a volume increase failed to push price beyond $0.0538, signaling a possible short-term resistance. The price-volume divergence during this period suggests a weakening in bullish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, price moved from a swing low of $0.0524 to a swing high of $0.0536. The 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels at $0.0531 and $0.0534, respectively, were tested multiple times, with $0.0534 showing strong demand. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level at $0.0533–$0.0536 may act as a potential pivot area for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy could be developed using the morning breakout pattern and bullish engulfing candle as entry triggers, with a stop-loss placed at $0.0528 and a take-profit at $0.0541. Given the recent RSI divergence and consolidation around $0.0534, it may be prudent to wait for a confirmation candle above $0.0536 before entering long positions. If the 61.8% retracement level at $0.0534 fails to hold, a bearish strategy could also be deployed using the doji pattern as a signal. The key is to align entry with volume confirmation to avoid false breakouts.