Market Overview for Sun/Tether USDt (SUNUSDT) — 2025-09-05

• Price fell to 0.02126 by 06:00 ET, a 1.8% drop from the previous 24-hour open.
• Volatility peaked with a 330-basis-point range between 01:15 ET and 05:30 ET.
• RSI signaled oversold territory multiple times, yet price failed to rebound above 0.0215.
• Volume surged during the 01:15–05:30 ET selloff, indicating strong bearish conviction.
• Bollinger Bands tightened in the final hour before 12:00 ET, hinting at potential range expansion.

Sun/Tether USDt (SUNUSDT) opened at 0.02175 on 2025-09-04 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.02138 on 2025-09-05 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range was 0.02184 (high) to 0.02126 (low), with total volume at 43,983,726.0 and total turnover at 936,825.71 USD.

Structure & Formations

The price action of SUNUSDT over the past 24 hours displayed a clear bearish bias, with the pair breaking below a key support level of 0.0215 and forming a series of bearish engulfing patterns, especially between 01:15 and 05:30 ET. A notable long-legged doji appeared at 02:15 ET, suggesting indecision and a possible reversal, but this was quickly invalidated by continued selling pressure. Key resistance levels to watch ahead include 0.0217 (recent high) and 0.0218 (previous swing high), while support sits at 0.02135 (low of the last 24 hours) and 0.02126 (daily low).

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended downward throughout the session, confirming the bearish momentum. By the close, the 50-period MA had crossed below the 20-period MA, signaling a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the price closed below all major moving averages (50, 100, 200), with no immediate signs of reversal. The bearish crossover on the 15-minute chart suggests short-term bearish continuation may be in play, while the daily chart indicates deeper bearish sentiment.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram turned negative after 01:30 ET and remained below zero for the remainder of the session, indicating bearish momentum. The RSI dipped into oversold territory multiple times, including a 10.7 reading at 05:30 ET, yet price failed to stage a meaningful rebound. This divergence suggests a lack of bullish conviction. The RSI remains in the 20–30 range, pointing to potential for a short-term bounce, but strong bearish volume may counteract this.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands constricted toward the end of the session, with price hovering near the lower band at 0.02138. This contraction indicates a potential setup for a breakout or reversal. However, the prevailing bearish sentiment and volume profile suggest a lower band test is more likely than a bullish reversal. If the pair fails to break above 0.02155 in the next 24 hours, the bands may expand downward.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the selloff between 01:15 and 05:30 ET, with over 37 million SUN tokens traded during that window. The largest single 15-minute volume spike occurred at 05:30 ET (1.85 million SUN), coinciding with a drop to 0.02143. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, peaking at 01:15 ET. Price and volume aligned during the selloff, reinforcing the bearish narrative. A divergence between price and volume in the next 24 hours could signal exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing (0.02184 high to 0.02126 low), the key retracement levels are 0.02155 (38.2%), 0.02143 (61.8%), and 0.02135 (78.6%). The price briefly tested the 61.8% level at 0.02143 before retreating. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement (0.0215) appears to be the next critical level to watch. A failure to hold above 0.0215 could lead to a test of the 0.02135 support.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish structure and strong selloff, a possible backtest hypothesis is to enter short positions on the 15-minute timeframe when SUNUSDT closes below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (0.02143) with confirmation from RSI in oversold territory and a bearish MACD crossover. The stop-loss could be placed just above the 38.2% retracement (0.02155), with a target at 0.02135 or the 78.6% retracement level. This strategy would align with the observed volume dynamics and bearish divergence, aiming to capture short-term continuation moves.