Market Overview for SUIUSDT (Sui/Tether)

Summary
• Price fell 5.8% from $2.0781 to $1.9717 amid bearish momentum.
• Volatility expanded with wide-range candlesticks and heavy volume.
• RSI oversold territory and MACD divergence suggest a short-term bounce may form.
• Bollinger Band contraction seen before the steep decline.
• Backtest signals strong potential for short-biased strategies.

SUIUSDT opened at $2.0781 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at $1.9717 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-12. The price swung between $2.0951 (high) and $1.9600 (low) over the 24-hour period. Total traded volume amounted to 9,834,437.3, while total turnover was approximately $19.83 million.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a series of bearish engulfing patterns from 18:00–19:30 ET on 2025-11-11, confirming a shift in sentiment. A key support level appears to be forming near $1.97–1.98, with a potential resistance at $2.06–2.07. A doji near $2.0505 on 2025-11-12 00:15 ET signals indecision, but bearish continuation prevailed after.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below both the 20SMA and 50SMA, with a bearish crossover evident. On the daily chart, the 50DMA and 200DMA appear to be diverging further, with the 50DMA pulling away from the 200DMA, indicating a strengthening bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

MACD crossed below the signal line late on 2025-11-11, with a negative histogram expansion indicating bearish momentum. RSI dropped to 28–30 by the close, signaling oversold conditions, though a bounce is yet to materialize. A reversal above 40 may indicate a short-term rebound, but a sustained break below 30 could lead to further declines.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility spiked sharply as price moved from the upper to lower Bollinger Band between 18:00–20:30 ET. A contraction was observed before the steep drop, indicating a potential breakout move. Currently, price sits near the lower band, suggesting a continuation of the bearish trend is probable unless buyers step in to push it above the middle band.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the key bearish moves, especially between 18:15–19:30 ET and again at 15:00–16:00 ET. Notional turnover rose in tandem with the price decline, confirming bearish sentiment. A divergence in volume during the late rebound (10:30–12:00 ET) suggests weak conviction in the recovery attempt.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, price found support at the 61.8% retracement level (around $1.97–1.98) following the drop from $2.0951. On the daily timeframe, the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels are now in the $2.07–2.08 range, which appears to be a potential area for a countertrend reaction if buyers step in.

Backtest Hypothesis

The “Bearish Engulfing Short Strategy” tested over a three-year period yielded a total return of 92.9%, with an annualized return of 27.6%. While the Sharpe ratio of 0.62 suggests moderate risk-adjusted returns, the max drawdown of -48.2% highlights the need for robust risk management. Given the bearish engulfing patterns observed today and the alignment of RSI and MACD signals, this strategy appears to have a favorable setup in current conditions. Traders may consider short entries with tight stop-losses near 2.05 and target levels aligned with 61.8% Fibonacci and key support at 1.96.