Market Overview for SUIUSDT: 2025-10-03

• SUIUSDT opened at $3.5143 and rose to $3.6435 before retracing to close at $3.5807.
• The pair experienced a 15-minute breakout attempt, followed by consolidation and pullback.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions during the peak, suggesting potential reversal.
• Volatility increased in the morning, with volume spiking during the rally to $3.64.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged as the pair retraced from key resistance at $3.6435.

The Sui/Tether (SUIUSDT) pair opened at $3.5143 at 12:00 ET – 1 and reached an intraday high of $3.6435. Price reversed and closed at $3.5807 at 12:00 ET, down 1.54% over 24 hours. Total volume for the period was approximately 106,519,639.2, with a notional turnover of roughly $379,378,612. The pair exhibited a sharp upward move driven by early-morning buying before a significant bearish correction.

Structure & Formations

The SUIUSDT candlestick chart revealed multiple key resistance and support levels. A strong resistance cluster was identified at $3.6435–$3.6417, where price stalled and turned downward. A bullish engulfing pattern was observed from $3.58 to $3.61 as the pair moved up from a consolidation phase. A bearish engulfing pattern followed at the top, signaling exhaustion. A doji near $3.5887 indicated indecision in the market. Key support levels include $3.5771 and $3.5628, with the former showing robust price action during the early morning pullback.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages converged as the pair approached $3.64, indicating strong momentum. Price closed below both averages at the end of the 24-hour period, suggesting a bearish tilt. On the daily chart, the 50-period, 100-period, and 200-period moving averages aligned near $3.60–$3.62, with the 200-period acting as a key psychological level. The recent close at $3.5807 sits below the 200-period, indicating a potential bearish trend continuation.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bullish crossover during the morning rally, with histogram bars expanding during the push to $3.6435. However, the histogram began to contract as the bearish correction took hold. RSI peaked at 74–76, indicating overbought conditions and raising the likelihood of a pullback. The RSI is now returning to neutral ground, hovering around 58, suggesting potential for further consolidation.

Bollinger Bands widened during the morning rally, with price touching the upper band near $3.6435. This suggests high volatility and a potential turning point. As price pulled back, it entered the lower half of the bands, indicating reduced volatility and a possible retest of the middle band. The contraction in band width during the overnight hours suggests a period of consolidation before the recent breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the morning rally, with a 15-minute spike to 835,686.5 at 19:30 ET as price approached $3.6435. This high volume confirmed the strength of the breakout. However, volume dropped significantly after the peak, with the subsequent bearish correction occurring on lower turnover, suggesting weaker conviction among buyers. The final 15-minute bar at 12:00 ET recorded 745,700.2 in volume, with price declining by 0.36%, indicating moderate bearish pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute move from $3.5143 to $3.6435, the 61.8% level is at $3.5916, which price tested but failed to hold. The 50% retracement at $3.5789 was tested multiple times during the pullback. On the daily timeframe, Fibonacci levels based on the broader move from $3.5323 to $3.6435 show the 78.6% retracement at $3.5629 and the 50% at $3.5879, both of which are now acting as support and resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves using the 50-period moving average as a dynamic support/resistance level on the 15-minute chart. A buy signal is generated when price crosses above the 50-period MA with volume above the 20-period average, and a sell signal is triggered when price crosses below with increasing bearish momentum on RSI. Given the morning breakout confirmed by strong volume, this strategy could have captured the $3.6435 high. A stop-loss below $3.5771 and a take-profit at $3.6417 would have aligned with the retracement levels and key resistance. Testing this strategy over the past week could provide insight into its consistency and risk-adjusted returns.