Market Overview for SUIUSDT on 2025-09-19

• • SUIUSDT opened at 3.952 and closed at 3.6614 after a volatile 24-hour session marked by a sharp decline from 3.9705 to 3.644.
• • Price action shows a bearish momentum with RSI reaching oversold levels and MACD confirming the downtrend.
• • High volatility was observed, with a large range of 0.3289 and a Bollinger Band contraction preceding the sharp drop.
• • Trading volume surged to over 20.6 million SUI at the bottom of the move, but price failed to rebound.
• • A 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at ~3.82 appears to offer initial near-term support for the pair.

SUI/Tether (SUIUSDT) opened at 3.952 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET and fell to a 24-hour low of 3.644 before closing at 3.6614 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-19. The 24-hour trading session saw a high of 3.9705 and a low of 3.644, with total volume reaching 18,727,601.8 SUI and notional turnover of $58,958,997.96.

Structure & Formations

The price action for SUIUSDT was dominated by a prolonged bearish trend that unfolded over the course of the day. A key bearish engulfing pattern formed at the top of the range (3.97–3.96) and confirmed the breakdown. A long lower shadow at 3.9445 (19:45 ET) marked a failed attempt at a short-term bounce, while a doji formed at 3.923 (21:15 ET), signaling indecision among buyers. The most significant move came between 14:15–15:15 ET, during which SUIUSDT dropped from 3.69 to 3.644, forming a strong bearish trend with no reversal signals. Key support levels appear to be forming around 3.69–3.72, while 3.82 offers a Fibonacci retracement (38.2%) as a potential near-term pivot.

Moving Averages & MACD

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages both remained in a steep bearish alignment, with the 20 MA falling below the 50 MA for most of the session. The MACD line turned negative and continued to move lower, reinforcing the bearish momentum. The RSI reached an oversold condition below 25 at 15:15 ET, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce, but no such reversal occurred. On the daily timeframe, the 50- and 200-period moving averages are also bearishly aligned, with SUIUSDT trading well below both.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Volatility for SUIUSDT expanded significantly during the early afternoon as the drop from ~3.70 to ~3.64 occurred. This move pushed price outside the lower Bollinger Band for several consecutive candles, indicating heightened bearish pressure. The Bollinger Band width also expanded, confirming the increase in market anxiety. Notably, the band contraction earlier in the morning (18:00–19:00 ET) preceded the sharp drop, which is a classical volatility breakout pattern.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at the bottom of the decline, particularly during the 14:15–15:15 ET window, when the price fell from 3.69 to 3.644. This period saw a large block of 2063071.9 SUI traded at 3.6836, indicating aggressive selling. However, price failed to find support at this volume spike, and the pair continued to fall. Turnover also peaked during this time, with the largest notional volume occurring in the candle that closed at 3.6551. The divergence between high volume and no immediate price recovery is a red flag for further downside.

Fibonacci Retracements

The most recent 15-minute swing from 3.9705 to 3.644 defines a 0.3263 move. The 38.2% retracement level (~3.82) appears to be the first key area of interest for potential buyers. On the daily chart, the broader swing from 3.9765 to 3.644 defines a stronger retracement range, with the 61.8% level (~3.77) being a critical threshold. If SUIUSDT can hold above 3.72, the 3.82 level becomes more relevant. A break below 3.64 could trigger the next 38.2% retracement at ~3.57.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current bearish alignment, the backtest strategy should focus on short positions initiated at key Fibonacci levels, particularly the 38.2% retracement at 3.82 and 3.72. A trailing stop loss below the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart would help capture the majority of the bearish move while minimizing exposure to potential false breakouts. Entries could be triggered by bearish engulfing patterns or RSI confirmation above the 3.72–3.75 range. For conservative strategies, a long entry at 3.82–3.84 is only valid with a bullish engulfing candle and RSI above 50, but given current momentum, this is less favored.