Market Overview for SUIUSD on 2025-09-04

• SUIUSD formed a bearish engulfing pattern at 3.4035, signaling possible downside.
• Price declined sharply below 3.3808 after a brief rebound, breaking key support.
• RSI dropped below 30, suggesting oversold conditions, but momentum is weak.
• Volume spiked during the early hours, but recent trading has been quiet.
• Bollinger Bands show a moderate expansion, indicating increased volatility.

On 2025-09-04 at 12:00 ET, SUIUSD opened at $3.33, hit a high of $3.4035, a low of $3.2706, and closed at $3.2706. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 719.6, and the notional turnover amounted to $2,396.68. The market has seen a sharp bearish reversal from intraday highs, raising questions about short-term support levels and potential rebounds.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart reveals a key bearish reversal pattern with a large engulfing candle that opened at $3.4035 and closed at $3.4006. This was followed by a break below the previous support at $3.3808. A notable selloff occurred during the early morning hours, with the price falling to $3.33, and a further break to $3.2706. A potential support level appears at $3.2706, which coincides with a previous swing low. Traders may watch this level for signs of a potential bounce or further decline.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart shows SUIUSD trading below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, confirming the bearish bias. On the daily timeframe, the price is below the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, reinforcing the overall downtrend. If the price fails to recover above the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart, it could signal a deeper pullback.

MACD & RSI

The RSI has dipped below 30, indicating oversold conditions, although the momentum remains weak as the price continues to trend downward. The MACD line has crossed below the signal line, forming a bearish crossover. This suggests weakening bullish momentum and could indicate further downside is likely unless a strong reversal occurs.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands show a moderate expansion in volatility, with the price currently trading near the lower band, suggesting a continuation of the downtrend. A break below the 3.2706 level could trigger increased volatility. If the price fails to bounce, a test of the lower band at $3.2618 may follow, as observed in the last swing.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early morning hours with a large bar of 57.3 units, coinciding with the sharp decline. However, recent volume has been subdued, indicating a lack of conviction in the downward move. The notional turnover, while elevated during the selloff, has not been enough to drive a strong bounce. This divergence suggests traders are cautious and may be waiting for more direction.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 38.2% Fibonacci level is at $3.3689 and the 61.8% level is at $3.3491. On the daily timeframe, the 61.8% retracement from the recent high is at $3.33, which was briefly tested. A break below $3.2706 could bring into play deeper Fibonacci levels at $3.2618 and $3.2505, which could provide further insight into the strength of the current downtrend.

Backtest Hypothesis

A possible backtest strategy could involve using the 15-minute chart’s engulfing pattern at $3.4035 as a sell signal, combined with a break below the 20-period moving average to confirm the downtrend. Entering a short position on the break of $3.3808 with a stop just above $3.4035 could offer a risk-reward ratio of approximately 1:1.5, based on the initial target at $3.2706. If RSI confirms oversold conditions and the price remains below the 50-period MA, a tighter stop may be considered. This setup aligns with the bearish momentum observed in the MACD and could help traders capture a portion of the current leg down.