Market Overview for SUIUSD (2025-08-29)

• SUIUSD fell from $3.5192 to $3.2876, marking a 7.3% decline in 24 hours amid low volume.
• A bearish trend appears to be consolidating with key support forming near $3.30.
• Volatility spiked mid-cycle but has since narrowed, suggesting range-bound behavior.
• RSI and MACD suggest oversold conditions, but volume remains muted, casting doubt on near-term reversal.
• Fibonacci retracement levels point to $3.32–$3.35 as potential bounce targets.

SUIUSD opened at $3.5192 on 2025-08-28 at 12:00 ET and closed at $3.3046 on 2025-08-29 at 12:00 ET, with a high of $3.5192 and a low of $3.2876 over the 24-hour window. Total volume was 986.3 units, while notional turnover was approximately $3,356.49.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish breakdown pattern from $3.5192 to $3.4401 early in the cycle before continuing lower to $3.2876, suggesting short-term bearish momentum. A key support level appears to be forming near $3.30, as price bounced from $3.2876 to $3.3046 in the final hours. A bearish engulfing candle at $3.32–$3.3037 and a potential doji at $3.3046 may signal a possible near-term bottom.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing short-term bearish sentiment. Daily data is not provided, but intraday breakdowns suggest a broader bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The RSI fell to 28–30, indicating oversold conditions, and MACD has been negative throughout the session with a narrowing histogram, hinting at weakening bearish momentum. However, with volume remaining low and no bullish divergence, a reversal is not confirmed.

Bollinger Bands

Price spent most of the session in the lower half of the Bollinger Bands, with volatility contracting in the final hours. The narrowing bands suggest a potential breakout or reversal may be imminent, but confirmation is needed.

Volume & Turnover

Volume remains muted for most of the session, with notable spikes at $3.32–$3.3037 and $3.3046, indicating some accumulation but not enough to drive a strong rebound. Turnover also remained low, suggesting limited institutional activity or conviction on either side.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key swing from $3.5192 to $3.2876, the 38.2% retracement level is at $3.32 and the 61.8% level is at $3.35. Price closed near $3.3046, which aligns with a potential bounce zone. A close above $3.35 would be necessary to trigger a more definitive recovery.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest of an “RSI Oversold” strategy on SUI from 1 Jan 2022 through 29 Aug 2025 could offer valuable insight into the effectiveness of RSI signals in capturing rebounds in this asset. With RSI dropping to oversold territory today (below 30), the conditions appear aligned with the strategy's entry criteria. However, the muted volume and lack of a strong bullish divergence mean the signal should be used cautiously. Further confirmation from price action—such as a break above $3.35 or a bullish crossover in MACD—would strengthen the case for a short-term rebound trade.