Market Overview for SUIJPY: Volatility and Momentum Shifts in a 24-Hour Cycle

• SUIJPY saw a sharp 24-hour high of 388.47 before retreating toward 377.92; volume surged at key inflection points.
• Momentum showed overbought conditions in early morning hours, followed by a bearish reversal in afternoon ET.
• Volatility expanded during overnight hours, with prices fluctuating between 380.13 and 388.47.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed around 380.13, followed by bearish divergence in late morning ET.
• Bollinger Bands showed recent contraction near 381.92, suggesting potential for renewed breakouts.

The Sui/Yen (SUIJPY) pair opened at 378.96 on 2025-10-24 at 12:00 ET, reaching a peak of 388.47 by 01:45 AM ET before closing at 377.92 at 12:00 ET the following day. Total volume traded over the 24-hour period was 261,981.77 units, while notional turnover amounted to 97,188,835.87 JPY. Price action displayed a volatile seesaw pattern, with a midday rally and a late afternoon pullback suggesting a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers.

The structure of the candlestick chart reveals key support and resistance clusters. A strong resistance emerged around 385.0–386.5, where price tested this area multiple times and reversed downward. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed at 380.13, signaling a potential shift in sentiment. On the flip side, support appeared consolidated near 378.48, where the price found a floor during midday and early evening sessions. A doji formed around 385.54, indicating indecision and potential exhaustion of bullish momentum.

Moving averages show a bearish bias for the 15-minute timeframe. The 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA, suggesting a short-term bearish tilt. The 50-period MA held steady around 383.5, acting as a dynamic resistance level. For daily charts, the 50-period MA is approaching 381.9, with the 200-period MA near 380.4. This suggests a potential test of long-term support if the current downward trend continues.

Momentum indicators confirm a volatile session. The RSI hit overbought territory at 85.7 during the early morning hours, but declined sharply in the afternoon, reaching oversold levels near 19.5 by 10:15 AM ET. The MACD line crossed below the signal line multiple times, reinforcing bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands displayed a contraction near 381.92, followed by a breakout to the upside. Price closed near the upper band at 388.47, indicating strong short-term volatility and potential for further sideways or downward movement if the upper band fails as resistance.

The Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent high of 388.47 to the low of 377.92 show key levels at 385.0 (38.2%), 383.2 (50%), and 381.6 (61.8%). These levels acted as psychological barriers during the 15-minute time frame and could be pivotal for near-term directional cues. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the recent swing high to low is near 379.0, a critical area for potential support or reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the dynamic RSI overbought/oversold levels and clear support/resistance structures observed, a potential backtest strategy could involve entering long positions when RSI falls below 30 (oversold), with a stop-loss below the nearest Fibonacci level and a target near the 38.2% or 50% retracement. Conversely, short entries could be triggered when RSI crosses above 70, with stops above key resistance levels. To refine this, we need the correct RSI source—could you confirm the exact symbol (e.g., “SUI-USDT” on a known exchange like Binance or Coinbase), and whether you’d like fixed stop-loss/take-profit levels or a plain entry-exit test?