Market Overview for SUIJPY (Sui/Yen)

• SUIJPY opened at 480.65 and closed at 472.7 after a bearish 24-hour session.
• Price dropped from a high of 482.6 to a low of 461.9, forming multiple bearish reversal patterns.
• RSI and MACD signal overbought-to-oversold transitions, with low volatility observed in the final hours.
• Volume spiked during major declines but faded toward the close, signaling potential exhaustion.

The SUIJPY pair opened at 480.65 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET and closed at 472.7 as of 2025-09-26 at 12:00 ET. Over the 24-hour period, the price moved between 482.6 and 461.9, with a total traded volume of 166,056.27 units and a notional turnover of 78,653,205.46. The session featured multiple strong bearish moves, particularly between 18:00 and 21:00 ET, followed by a consolidation phase toward the close.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a bearish engulfing pattern during the 19:30–19:45 ET period, followed by a shooting star at 22:45 ET and a bearish harami between 00:30–00:45 ET on 09-26. A key support level at 467.0 was tested multiple times and held on the final retest near the 12:00 ET close. Resistance levels at 474.5, 478.0, and 481.0 repeatedly failed to hold, confirming bearish control. A descending triangle is developing between the 482.6 high and the 461.9 low, which could break to the downside soon.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

The 15-minute 20SMA and 50SMA crossed into a bearish crossover, with the 20SMA dropping below the 50SMA during the 21:00–21:15 ET window. The MACD turned negative after the 20:00 ET time frame, with a bearish histogram expanding during the 23:00–23:30 ET range. The RSI fell below 40 during the early hours of 09-26 and reached as low as 29.1 at 07:45 ET before rebounding slightly. This suggests oversold territory and a potential bounce near 465.0, though a retest of 461.9 may trigger more selling.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility was widest during the 18:00–19:00 ET window, with the Bollinger Bands expanding from a 15-minute range of ~3.4 to ~8.4. Price stayed below the lower band for much of the 22:00–02:00 ET window, indicating bearish momentum. A contraction in the band width was observed after 04:00 ET, signaling potential consolidation. Price currently sits near the lower band at 465.0, suggesting a low-probability bounce or continued bearish pressure.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked during major downward moves, with a 6,971-unit candle at 21:45 ET and a 5,055-unit candle at 09:30 ET. Turnover surged during the 18:00–20:00 ET window, reaching a notional value of ~3.5M. However, both volume and turnover declined sharply after 04:00 ET, indicating waning short-term bearish conviction. A divergence between price and volume may signal an upcoming consolidation phase or a short-term reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 18:00–21:00 ET 15-minute swing, the price found support at the 61.8% level (469.4) and later at 38.2% (472.8). On the daily chart, retracements from the 482.6 high to the 461.9 low show 61.8% at 471.0, which is a potential key pivot for the next 24 hours. A break below 467.0 could target the 38.2% level at 469.4, followed by 50.0% at 471.0, depending on buying interest.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering short positions on bearish engulfing patterns confirmed by a MACD crossover and a break below the 20SMA on the 15-minute chart. Stop-loss is placed at the recent swing high, while take-profit targets the next Fibonacci level. The 12:00–12:15 ET candle offers a viable entry with a stop at 473.0 and a target at 468.0. This strategy would have triggered a trade during the 21:00–21:15 ET window with a strong success probability given the volume confirmation and bearish pattern alignment.