Market Overview for SUIJPY (Sui/Yen) on 2025-09-25

• Sui/Yen (SUIJPY) traded in a broad descending range, closing near the day's low after forming multiple bearish candlestick patterns.
• Momentum weakened throughout the session, with RSI and MACD signaling oversold conditions toward the end of the 24-hour window.
• Volatility increased as the pair broke below key support levels, with notable volume surges during the selloffs.
• A consolidation phase may follow, or a further decline could be in play if key Fibonacci levels break.
• Price remains inside the lower Bollinger Band, reflecting low volatility expectations and a potential continuation of the downward drift.

The Sui/Yen (SUIJPY) pair opened at 508.57 at 12:00 ET−1 and drifted lower throughout the 24-hour period, reaching a high of 509.41 and a low of 467.18 before closing at 473.13 at 12:00 ET. The total volume for the session was approximately 242,486.1 units, with a notional turnover of around 119,441,678.2 JPY. The price action reflected a bearish bias, supported by rising volume during downward moves.

From a structural standpoint, the pair encountered key resistance at 509.41 and 506.89, failing to hold either. A bearish engulfing pattern formed near 509.41, followed by a long lower shadow doji at 505.09, suggesting indecision among buyers. The price then broke below the 500.0 level with strong volume, forming a bearish flag pattern between 505.0 and 490.87, which completed its expected downside target.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both trended downward, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 50-period MA crossed below the 20-period MA, forming a death cross that signaled a potential deepening of the bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-day MA remains above the 100-day and 200-day MAs, suggesting that a broader bearish trend may still be in place.

MACD moved into negative territory, with the histogram expanding on the selloffs and showing bearish momentum. The RSI approached the oversold zone (below 30) during the later hours, but the failure to recover above the 40 level suggests the downmove could continue. Price remained near the lower Bollinger Band for much of the session, indicating reduced volatility and a potential consolidation or further decline.

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the 509.41 high to the 467.18 low highlight key levels at 494.86 (38.2%), 484.12 (50%), and 473.38 (61.8%). The close at 473.13 suggests a possible test of the 61.8% level or a short-term bounce from that level. A break below 473.13 could target the 467.18 level, with a stop-loss potentially placed above 484.12 to filter out false signals.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering a short position upon a close below the 61.8% Fibonacci level (473.38) with a stop-loss above the 50% level (484.12). A take-profit target could be set at the 467.18 level or beyond if the break continues. The 15-minute chart shows the price has already tested this level once today and may attempt to retest it for confirmation. This strategy would aim to capitalize on short-term bearish momentum while managing risk through defined stop and limit levels. The RSI near the oversold level also adds a layer of caution, as over-extended conditions can sometimes trigger rebounds. A confirmation of strength or weakness on the next 15-minute candle could help refine the signal.