Market Overview for SUIJPY: Strong Bullish Momentum and Key Resistance Levels in Focus

• SUIJPY opened at 518.95 and surged to a high of 536.15 before consolidating back to 533.01, showing strong momentum.
• Volatility expanded mid-session, with price breaking above 530.0 and forming bullish continuation patterns.
• RSI peaked above 65, suggesting overbought conditions, while volume confirmed price surges late in the day.
• Bollinger Bands expanded as price moved above the upper band, signaling a potential trend extension.
• Key support appears at 528.0, with resistance near 535.0 based on swing highs and order block volume.

The Sui/Yen (SUIJPY) pair opened at 518.95 on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET and reached an intraday high of 536.15 before closing at 533.01 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-03. Total volume for the 24-hour period amounted to 194,333.98 units, with notional turnover (price × volume) reflecting strong engagement.

Price action displayed a clear bullish trend, particularly after 19:00 ET, with a sharp rally from 526.15 to 536.15 over just 90 minutes. A key 50-period 15-minute moving average acted as dynamic support, reinforcing the trend. The 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA late in the session, forming a potential short-term bullish signal. The 50-period daily MA is also near the current price, suggesting the trend may continue for at least the next session.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels identified from the data include 528.0, 524.0, and 519.0, with resistance at 535.0, 536.15, and 537.5. A bullish engulfing pattern formed around 19:00 ET after a period of consolidation, followed by a bearish rejection candle around 23:45 ET, which failed to break below 526.0. A doji formed early on 2025-10-03, indicating indecision before the trend resumed.

Moving Averages

The 20-period 15-minute moving average crossed above the 50-period MA late in the session, suggesting potential continuation of the bullish trend. The 50-period daily moving average is currently near 533.0, aligning with the close, and could serve as a pivot for the next 24 hours.

MACD & RSI

The RSI reached a peak of 66.5, indicating overbought conditions without a corresponding bearish reversal, which suggests further upside potential. The MACD (12, 26, 9) showed a positive crossover and remained above zero, supporting the idea of a bullish momentum shift.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the rally, with the Bollinger Bands widening from a narrow range to approximately 6.0 pips. The price closed just below the upper band at 536.15, indicating a strong breakout pattern. The bands remain wide, signaling continued expansion in volatility.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked above 9,000 units at the peak of the rally, confirming the breakout move. Notional turnover followed closely, suggesting strong buying interest. The volume profile indicated strong order flow between 530.0 and 536.15, particularly between 533.0 and 535.0, suggesting key accumulation levels.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 15-minute Fibonacci retracement from the low at 518.95 to the high at 536.15 places 61.8% at 531.5 and 50% at 527.5, which align with current price action. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement from a previous swing low to the recent high is also near 533.0, reinforcing the importance of this level.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong alignment of moving averages, bullish candlestick patterns, and confirmed volume spikes, a backtest strategy based on the 20/50-period MA crossover with RSI confirmation could be effective. A long entry could be triggered when the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA, and the RSI remains above 50. A stop-loss could be placed at the nearest support level (528.0), with a take-profit target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level (533.0) or beyond at 536.15. This setup would test the trend's sustainability while managing downside risk.