Market Overview: SUIJPY 24-Hour Performance and Technical Implications

• SUIJPY closed at 386.64 after a 24-hour decline from 398.49 to 375.8, with volatility peaking in the early hours.
• A large bearish reversal candle formed near 390.49, confirming a shift in sentiment and momentum to the downside.
• RSI entered oversold territory below 30, suggesting potential near-term support, but volume divergence weakens bullish conviction.
• Bollinger Bands show a contraction in the early morning, followed by a sharp expansion aligning with the 385.01–386.64 price bounce.
• Turnover spiked over $18,000 during the 380.7–382.86 rebound but failed to confirm a strong reversal.

SUIJPY opened at 394.53 at 12:00 ET−1 and closed at 386.64 by 12:00 ET, with a high of 398.49 and a low of 375.8. Total volume reached 219,940.1 and turnover totaled approximately $83,784,714.93 in the 24-hour window. Price action saw a sharp bearish reversal in the early hours, followed by a tentative bounce in the afternoon and evening hours.

The structure of the 24-hour candlestick data reveals key support and resistance levels. A major support zone appears near 380.0–381.2, which has been tested multiple times during the recovery phase. A bearish engulfing pattern formed on the candle ending at 390.49, signaling a clear shift in sentiment. A doji formed at 380.95, suggesting indecision. Resistance is likely to remain at 385.01–386.64 in the short term, with 390.49 serving as a critical psychological level.

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average (EMA 20) has been below the 50-period EMA, indicating bearish momentum. The daily chart shows the price well below its 50, 100, and 200-period SMAs, reinforcing the downtrend. The RSI has dipped below 30, suggesting the pair may be oversold, but the lack of significant volume increase during the bounce implies limited bullish conviction.

MACD has remained in negative territory with a weak histogram, indicating fading bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands showed a period of contraction early on, followed by a sharp expansion as volatility picked up during the 380.7–382.86 bounce. Price has oscillated between the upper and middle bands in recent hours, suggesting potential for a countertrend move. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 383.7 appears to act as a minor resistance, while the 61.8% level at 380.4 has held as support multiple times.

The volume profile shows a significant spike during the morning sell-off, particularly between 19:30 and 20:45 ET, as price dropped from 394.2 to 386.3. However, during the afternoon and evening rebound, volume failed to follow through, creating a divergence that weakens the strength of the bounce. Turnover was highest during the 21:15–21:45 ET session as price tested and rejected 381.09. The divergence between price and volume suggests the recovery may not be sustainable without stronger buying interest.

Backtest Hypothesis
If we consider a simple mean-reversion strategy triggered by RSI crossing below 30 on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed at the recent swing low and a target at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, the data suggests a potential short-term rebound. However, the bearish momentum and divergence in volume may reduce the probability of success unless a breakout above 385.01 confirms strength.