Market Overview for SUIJPY on 2025-10-12

• SUIJPY opened at 405.03 and closed at 416.59 after a volatile 24-hour session with a high of 419.13 and a low of 376.84.
• Momentum shifted from bearish to bullish, with price recovering from a 6-hour decline to close near the session high.
• Volume surged on the final candle, with 6905.49 contracts traded at 416.59, confirming a possible breakout.
• RSI oversold conditions emerged in the early session, followed by a sharp rally, indicating a potential short-term reversal.
• Bollinger Bands showed a contraction before the breakout, signaling an impending volatility spike.

Sui/Yen (SUIJPY) opened at 405.03 on 2025-10-11 at 16:00 ET and closed the 24-hour session at 416.59 on 2025-10-12 at 16:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 419.13 and a low of 376.84. Total volume traded was 293,428.08, with a notional turnover of $115,091,072.64.

Over the past 24 hours, SUIJPY displayed a strong bearish-to-bullish reversal in price action. A sharp decline started after 19:00 ET on the 11th, with the price dropping over 10% in three hours to a low of 376.84. A strong recovery ensued, with price regaining over 12% by the close. The final 15-minute candle saw the highest volume of the session and a bullish close at 416.59, suggesting possible short-term momentum reversal.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels identified include 380.0 and 376.84, where the price found temporary floor during the early morning hours. Resistance appears to be forming near 409.38 and 411.07. A notable bullish engulfing pattern emerged between 15:30 and 16:00 ET, confirming the strength of the final 15-minute rally. A hanging man pattern formed earlier at 16:00 ET, which was later invalidated by the strong close.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were closely aligned in the morning before diverging during the bearish phase. The 20 SMA crossed above the 50 SMA in the afternoon, forming a golden cross that reinforced the recent bullish reversal. On the daily chart, the 50 SMA acted as support during the early morning decline and may provide additional structure for the next 24 hours.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram turned positive during the afternoon rally, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line. RSI moved out of oversold territory in the morning before declining further during the bearish phase, reaching a low of 18. A sharp recovery brought RSI back above 50, indicating a potential shift in momentum toward the bulls. However, the RSI remains below overbought levels, suggesting the move may not yet be exhausted.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a period of tight contraction around 02:00–04:00 ET, with the price oscillating within a narrow range. This was followed by a sharp expansion as price broke above the upper band. The final candle closed near the upper band, indicating strong volatility and potential continuation of the bullish trend. The width of the bands has widened significantly over the last 6 hours, signaling increased uncertainty.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was relatively subdued in the early morning hours but surged during the bearish phase, peaking at 33,357.51 on the candle ending at 01:45 ET. The final 15-minute candle saw the largest notional turnover of the day at $14,330,058.79. Price and turnover aligned closely during the final rally, indicating strong confirmation of the bullish move. A divergence between price and volume occurred briefly during the bearish phase, suggesting some internal uncertainty.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the major 15-minute swing from 376.84 to 419.13, key levels include 386.52 (23.6%), 400.43 (38.2%), and 408.85 (61.8%). The current close of 416.59 is near the 78.6% retracement level, suggesting the pair may test the upper end of this range. On the daily chart, a 38.2% retracement level lies at 398.54, which could serve as a support target if the trend reverses.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could focus on the bearish engulfing pattern seen earlier in the session, which was later invalidated by a strong reversal. A rule-based approach might trigger a short entry at the close of the bearish candle, with a stop above the high of the pattern. However, the subsequent bullish engulfing pattern and strong volume on the final candle would likely override the short bias, favoring a long position with a target near the 78.6% Fibonacci level. This approach emphasizes pattern confirmation and volume alignment to filter high-probability setups.