Market Overview for SUIJPY on 2025-10-11

• SUIJPY experienced a sharp 24-hour decline, falling from 504.16 to 414.84 with significant volatility and volume surges.
• A bearish breakdown below key support levels was confirmed, with RSI and MACD showing weak momentum and overbought reversal.
• Bollinger Band contraction gave way to expansion, highlighting a high-volatility bear phase with price trading near the lower band.
• Notable divergence between price and turnover was observed mid-day, with volume surging on sharp declines but turnover not confirming bullish follow-through.
• A strong bearish engulfing pattern and long lower wicks suggest continued selling pressure into the close of the 24-hour period.

Sui/Yen (SUIJPY) opened at 504.16 on 2025-10-10 at 16:00 ET and closed at 414.84 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 506.73 and a low of 100.0. Total 24-hour volume was 552,499.69 with a notional turnover of approximately $253,918,403 (calculated from OHLCV data). The price action was heavily bearish throughout the day, with a late-night breakdown below key support levels.

Structure & Formations

The price action over the 24-hour period revealed a strong bearish bias, marked by a sharp breakdown below 500.0, a critical psychological and Fibonacci 61.8% support level of the initial 504.16–414.84 range. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the start of the decline, followed by several long lower wicks and small bodies, indicating strong selling pressure. A key 15-minute doji formed at 415.65, signaling indecision after the major drop, but this did not hold as the price continued downward. Resistance levels at 420.32 and 425.03 were tested twice but failed to hold, with the price falling below all key support levels.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below the 20 and 50-period moving averages, confirming a bearish trend. The 50-period moving average crossed below the 20-period line, a bearish signal. The daily chart also showed the price below the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish setup. The MACD line crossed below the signal line with negative momentum, indicating weakening bullish strength. The RSI fell into oversold territory during the early morning hours, suggesting a potential short-term bounce, but this failed to materialize as selling continued. The combination of weak RSI and bearish MACD divergence points to further downward pressure.

Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci Retracements

Bollinger Bands showed a sharp expansion during the major sell-off, with the price trading near the lower band for much of the period. A contraction occurred briefly at 420.0–421.0 before expanding again, indicating increased volatility. Fibonacci retracements from the 504.16–414.84 swing showed price bouncing at the 38.2% and 61.8% levels but ultimately failing to hold. The 61.8% level at 456.0 was not a significant support, but the 38.2% level at 474.0 did see some buying interest that failed to hold as volume waned.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the sharp downward moves in the early hours, especially between 01:00 and 03:00 ET, where large-volume candles recorded price drops of over 10 Yen. However, the highest volume periods did not see a corresponding increase in turnover, suggesting that the large price drops may have occurred on large block trades or wash sales rather than broad-based selling. A divergence between price and turnover was observed around 02:00 and 04:00 ET, with high volume and low turnover, indicating potential bearish exhaustion. Nevertheless, the market remained bearish for the majority of the session with no clear signs of a reversal in sentiment.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy based on a combination of Fibonacci retracement levels and RSI overbought/oversold conditions may have generated profitable short trades during the 24-hour window. The price tested key Fibonacci levels, and the RSI fell into oversold territory at 415.65, potentially triggering a mean-reversion entry. However, due to the continued bearish momentum and lack of follow-through volume, any attempt to long the pair at the oversold RSI trigger would have resulted in a stop-loss. A more effective approach would be to short the pair when RSI entered overbought levels and the MACD diverged bearishly, particularly before the breakdown at 415.65. This approach could have captured the 90 Yen drop in under 4 hours.