Market Overview for SUIJPY (2025-10-08)

• SUIJPY formed a bullish reversal after a bearish morning session, closing near the session high at 529.52.
• Momentum was mixed with RSI signaling overbought conditions by midday, followed by a pullback.
• Volatility expanded through the 15-minute bands, with a surge in volume observed during midday trading.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged between 03:45–04:00 ET, coinciding with a key Fibonacci 61.8% level.
• Bollinger Band contraction early in the session gave way to a breakout toward the upper band, confirming renewed buying pressure.

Sui/Yen (SUIJPY) opened at 525.65 on 2025-10-07 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 534.48, a low of 524.0, and closing at 529.52 on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume totaled 132,128.58, while the notional turnover was 68,824,308.75. The pair demonstrated a clear shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish over the course of the session.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels emerged at 525.5 and 524.0, with a notable bearish breakdown attempt failing due to buying interest. On the bullish side, resistance formed at 530.0 and 533.0. A large bullish engulfing candle formed around 04:00 ET, confirming a reversal after a morning sell-off. A doji at 06:00 ET hinted at indecision, but this was quickly resolved with a sharp rebound. Notable Fibonacci levels at 530.61 and 532.9 were respected, with the 61.8% retracement at 529.52 coinciding with the session close.

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Moving Averages and Momentum

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed over multiple times, confirming choppy price action early in the session. By 04:00 ET, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA, signaling a potential bullish bias. The daily chart showed the price above both the 50-period and 200-period MAs, suggesting a longer-term bullish trend. The RSI hit overbought territory multiple times in the late hours, peaking at 70+ levels before retracing, indicating short-term exhaustion but no immediate bearish reversal.

The MACD showed a bullish divergence in the mid-morning, with the histogram expanding alongside the price rally. A bearish crossover occurred at 14:30 ET, but it was quickly negated by renewed buying pressure. Taken together, the indicators suggest the market is in a consolidation phase after a strong reversal, with momentum still favoring the bulls.

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Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility initially contracted between 12:00–16:00 ET, with the price consolidating near the center of the bands. The morning session ended with a breakout to the upper Bollinger band, which held until 19:00 ET when a retracement began. The price closed just below the upper band at 529.52, indicating strong buyer participation. The expansion of the bands during the midday rally signaled an increase in market participation and directional clarity.

Volume and Turnover

Volume surged to over 8,000 units between 03:45–05:00 ET, coinciding with the bullish reversal. This was accompanied by a sharp increase in turnover, suggesting genuine conviction rather than wash trading. By contrast, turnover dropped significantly in the early morning and late evening, despite continued price movement. A divergence was observed between volume and price during the 19:00–20:00 ET range, indicating temporary indecision in the market.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the morning bearish swing from 530.0 to 524.0, the 61.8% level at 529.52 was reached at the close of the session. This level coincided with the 20-period MA and acted as a strong support. On the 15-minute chart, the 38.2% and 50% retracements at 527.4 and 526.8 were both successfully tested before the price resumed its rally. These levels provided critical clues to potential turning points, which were validated by the candlestick patterns.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, with a stop-loss placed below the 50% level. This would align with the observed price behavior on the 15-minute chart, where buyers consistently stepped in at or near the 61.8% level. A target could be set at the upper Bollinger band or the next Fibonacci extension level of 533.0. Given the recent volume confirmation and RSI divergence, this setup may offer a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. However, traders should also consider the bearish crossover in the MACD at 14:30 ET as a potential signal to exit or tighten stops if the trend shows signs of reversal.

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Looking ahead, SUIJPY appears poised to test the 533.0 level on strong volume and sustained buying pressure. However, traders should remain cautious about potential overbought conditions and divergences that may trigger a correction. A break below 525.5 would invalidate the current bullish narrative and could signal a deeper retracement, particularly if it coincides with rising turnover and bearish candlestick formations.