Market Overview for SUIJPY: 2025-09-24

• SUIJPY posted a 24-hour low of 491.11 and closed at 506.8, showing a strong rebound from a mid-night dip.
• Price found critical support near 490.0 and formed multiple bullish patterns during the recovery phase.
• RSI indicated oversold conditions early in the session, followed by a strong rally in momentum.
• Volatility expanded through Bollinger Bands during the morning dip, with a sharp contraction in the afternoon.
• Notional turnover surged in late afternoon and evening, confirming the strength of the recent rally.

Sui/Yen (SUIJPY) opened at 501.6 on 2025-09-23 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 512.34, a low of 485.8, and closed at 506.8 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-24. The 24-hour trading session saw total volume of 151,276.45 and notional turnover of 75,067,492.50. The price experienced a sharp intraday correction into the early morning before staging a strong rebound in the afternoon and evening.

Structure & Formations

SUIJPY exhibited strong bearish pressure in the early hours, forming multiple bearish engulfing patterns and a deep morning doji at 493.11. A critical support level emerged around the 490.0–492.0 range, with price testing this level twice before rallying. A strong bullish reversal formed in the 01:00–04:30 ET timeframe, marked by a bullish engulfing and a rising wedge breakout. The final 6 hours saw the price consolidate between 505.0 and 508.5, suggesting short-term equilibrium is being tested.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA rose from 494.0 to 502.5, and the 50-period MA tracked closely behind at 498.2–503.1. Both lines crossed below price in the morning, but converged with it in the late afternoon and evening. Daily MAs (50/100/200) were all below the current price, indicating short-term strength and a potential divergence with longer-term sentiment.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram flipped from bearish to bullish during the afternoon, confirming the strength of the reversal. RSI dipped into oversold territory (below 30) at 490.0 and rebounded strongly to 56 by the close, suggesting momentum is still on the buyer's side. A potential overbought scenario has yet to emerge, but a closing above 510.0 may push RSI into 60+ territory.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility reached a 24-hour peak during the early morning dip, with price falling to the lower band (485.8). A subsequent expansion and contraction pattern formed, narrowing the bands from 498.0 to 504.0 by mid-evening. Price has remained within the bands in the final hours of the session, suggesting volatility is stabilizing after the sharp move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover spiked during the early morning (02:00–06:00 ET), with the largest spike reaching 11,520.84 units at 03:45 ET. This coincided with the lowest price of the session and the initial reversal. A second peak occurred during the late afternoon (14:00–16:00 ET), with the total volume for that period hitting over 8,144.48 units. The correlation between price action and volume confirms the strength of the rally, with no notable divergence.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels from the 485.8–512.34 move aligned with 498.2 and 504.4, respectively. Price spent significant time near these levels and found temporary support at both. The daily chart showed a similar pattern, with the 61.8% level at 503.6 aligning closely with the current 506.8 close. This suggests a possible short-term target near 510.0–512.0.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy under consideration involves a reversal setup on the 15-minute chart triggered by a bullish engulfing pattern forming below the 50-period MA and a RSI reading below 30. A long entry would be initiated at the close of the second candle in the pattern, with a stop loss placed below the low of the engulfing candle and a take profit at the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. This approach is well-aligned with today's price action and volume profile, particularly the 03:30–04:30 ET time frame, where these conditions were met and confirmed by a strong follow-through in volume and price.