Market Overview for SUIJPY on 2025-09-11

• SUIJPY surged to a 24-hour high of 540.53 before correcting sharply.
• Volume spiked during the late-night session, but price failed to hold above 538.
• RSI reached overbought territory twice, suggesting potential for near-term pullback.
• Volatility expanded significantly following a key breakout attempt and subsequent rejection.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near 534.55, signaling increased bearish momentum.

SUIJPY opened at 531.8 at 12:00 ET-1, surged to a high of 540.53, and closed at 528.88 at 12:00 ET today. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 408,462.53, and total turnover amounted to 219,239,642.15 JPY. The pair has shown a sharp bearish reversal after a bullish breakout attempt failed.

Structure & Formations

Price action formed a bearish engulfing candle at 534.55 and a potential bearish harami near 537.81–538.2. A key bearish doji appeared at 537.00 during the early morning, hinting at indecision. Resistance levels are forming around 537.00 and 538.20, while support appears to be consolidating at 531.10 and 528.50.

Key Levels

• Resistance 1: 537.00
• Resistance 2: 538.20
• Support 1: 531.10
• Support 2: 528.50

A strong break below 528.50 could trigger a test of 525.66, observed in a previous bearish session.

Moving Averages & Momentum Indicators

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have diverged, with the 20 MA dipping below the 50 MA, indicating weakening bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50 MA is currently above the 200 MA, but the 100 MA appears to be catching up from below, suggesting a potential bearish crossover may be forming.

RSI hit 75 twice on the 15-minute chart, indicating overbought conditions. MACD showed a bearish crossover, with the histogram turning negative after a small positive divergence earlier in the session. Price may struggle to retest resistance levels above 537.00 without a surge in bullish momentum.

Bollinger Bands & Fibonacci Levels

Bollinger Bands expanded following the late-night surge, with price breaching the upper band before a sharp correction. Price has since settled near the middle band at 534.89, indicating a potential consolidation phase. On Fibonacci levels, the 61.8% retracement from the recent high at 540.53 to the low at 525.66 is at 530.91. Price is now hovering near the 50% retracement level at 533.07, a key psychological level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 15-minute candle at 00:45 ET, where price peaked at 534.93, but failed to sustain bullish momentum. Turnover spiked during the 00:45–01:00 ET period and again during the 05:15–05:30 ET session. Notably, price diverged from volume during the 05:15–05:30 ET candle—closing at 533.42 on high volume, yet failing to push higher. This divergence signals caution for further upward movement.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering a short position upon a bearish engulfing pattern confirmation near key resistance levels (e.g., 537.00 and 538.20). Stops can be placed above the engulfing candle's high, while targets can align with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 530.91 and the support at 528.50. This approach would benefit from bearish momentum and overbought RSI conditions seen in the 15-minute chart. The strategy would likely perform best in low-volatility environments but faces risk of false breakouts during high-volume periods like those seen around 00:45 and 05:15 ET.