Market Overview for Sui/Yen (SUIJPY): Volatility and Momentum Signals

Summary
• SUIJPY opened at 320.48 and closed at 314.56, dropping below key support with a 24-hour low of 307.92.
• Volume spiked to 18,954.18 during a sharp sell-off, while RSI approached oversold territory.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near a swing high of 323.01, confirming bearish momentum.
• Price remains below both 20-period and 50-period moving averages, signaling downward bias.
• Bollinger Bands show contraction during consolidation, expanding as price drops toward 309.20.

Sui/Yen (SUIJPY) opened at 320.48 (12:00 ET − 1) and reached a high of 323.01 before closing at 314.56 (12:00 ET) on 11/12/2025. The pair hit a low of 307.92, indicating heightened bearish pressure. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 118,063.97, with turnover reaching ¥36.8 million. The market displayed a clear short-term downtrend, with price failing to hold above the 50-period moving average.

The 15-minute chart shows a bearish engulfing pattern formed after a brief bullish bounce from 310.92 to 315.19. This pattern emerged near a swing high at 323.01, confirming a breakdown in bullish momentum. Price has since fallen below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which currently sit at approximately 317.5 and 316.2, respectively. The 50-period MA may now act as dynamic resistance, and a failure to retest it would suggest further downside is probable.

MACD has turned negative and remains below the signal line, signaling sustained bearish momentum. RSI has moved into oversold territory, reaching a low of 28, which may indicate a potential near-term bottom. However, this is not a reliable bullish signal in a strong downtrend. Bollinger Bands have recently expanded after a period of contraction, with price sitting just above the lower band near 309.20. This suggests volatility is increasing as the market tests critical support levels.

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the recent swing high of 323.01 to the low of 307.92 suggest key levels at 315.42 (38.2%) and 311.56 (61.8%). If SUIJPY breaks below the 61.8% retracement, it could target a new support area near 306.00. The daily chart is not provided, but a continuation of the current bearish momentum could test the 200-period moving average over the next few days. Investors should monitor the 314.48 level for a potential retest and any signs of buying interest.

Backtest Hypothesis
The bearish engulfing pattern identified near the 323.01 resistance level is a strong short-term sell signal, especially when combined with volume confirmation. If the strategy is backtested using daily and 15-minute candles from 2022–2025, the signal would be triggered when the pattern forms within 30 days of a swing high and RSI is above 50, indicating a breakdown in bullish control. Short entries would be placed at the open of the following candle, with a stop-loss at the high of the engulfing candle and a take-profit at 61.8% of the Fibonacci retracement. The hypothesis is that this pattern has historically provided a favorable risk-reward ratio in a down-trending market, particularly when volume increases and momentum indicators confirm the breakdown.