Market Overview for Sui/Yen (SUIJPY) – October 5, 2025

• SUIJPY formed a bullish breakout above a key 15-minute resistance level near 531.5 before retracing.
• Momentum remains strong with RSI and MACD showing positive divergence and bullish signals.
• Volatility expanded through a 15-minute Bollinger Band breakout, with volume increasing during key upward thrusts.
• A bearish correction emerged after 10:00 ET, testing key Fibonacci support at 530.0 and 528.0 levels.
• Notional turnover surged above $100,000 at 00:30 ET during a sharp rally to 544.78 before consolidating.

Sui/Yen (SUIJPY) opened at 518.64 on October 4 at 12:00 ET and closed at 530.38 on October 5 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 544.78 and a low of 528.43. The pair recorded a total volume of 143,210.13 units and a turnover of approximately $74,395,678.76 in the 24-hour period. The market appears to be in a consolidation phase following a sharp upward thrust, with mixed signals emerging in late hours.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels emerged at 530.0 and 528.0, with 527.0 acting as a critical level to watch. A bearish correction off the 544.78 high tested these levels, forming a potential bullish hammer at 530.51–530.38. A 15-minute doji near 530.0–530.51 suggests indecision and potential short-term reversal. A bullish engulfing pattern was observed during the 03:00–03:15 ET window, confirming a continuation of the rally after a prior consolidation phase.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period EMA crossed above the 50-period EMA early in the rally, confirming a short-term bullish bias. By 03:30 ET, the 50-period EMA rose above 535.0, aligning with the 535.5 close. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA sits at 529.0, with the 200-period SMA at 525.5. Price remains above both, suggesting a constructive trend despite recent pullbacks.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained positive during the majority of the session, with a bullish crossover forming at 01:45 ET. RSI hit 75 during the 03:00–03:15 ET rally, indicating overbought conditions. A bearish divergence appeared after 09:00 ET as price pulled back while RSI remained elevated, suggesting caution. RSI has since re-entered neutral territory, with potential for further consolidation.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 00:30–02:00 ET window, with price breaking above the upper band at 531.5. This signaled increased volatility and a potential continuation of the bullish move. By midday, bands had contracted again, suggesting a reduction in short-term volatility. Price is currently trading near the middle band, with a potential for a rebound from the lower band as support strengthens.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 00:30–02:00 ET rally, reaching a peak of 16,776.03 units, with turnover exceeding $100,000. The volume was primarily concentrated in large orders, suggesting institutional or algorithmic participation. A divergence between price and volume emerged after 09:00 ET as price declined but volume remained muted, raising concerns about the strength of the consolidation phase.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 544.78 high saw a pullback to the 530.38 close, aligning with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. A potential 61.8% level is located near 527.0, which could become a key support if the current consolidation fails. Daily Fibonacci levels suggest a possible retest of the 530.0–532.0 range before a potential break lower or a continuation of the bullish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described involves a combination of moving average crossovers and Fibonacci retracement levels. Specifically, it triggers a long entry when the 20-period EMA crosses above the 50-period EMA and price is trading above a key Fibonacci level (e.g., 38.2% or 61.8%). A stop-loss is placed below the recent swing low, and a take-profit is set at the next Fibonacci level or 2x risk. During the current session, this strategy would have triggered a long entry at 535.52 around 00:00 ET and exited with a positive return before the pullback after 09:00 ET. The strategy could be refined by incorporating RSI divergence for tighter risk control.