Market Overview for Sui/Yen (SUIJPY) – October 24, 2025

• SUIJPY traded lower overnight but rebounded sharply after 04:45 ET, closing near session highs.
• Momentum improved significantly in the early morning hours, as RSI and MACD turned positive.
• Volatility expanded with a large-volume candle near 05:00 ET, suggesting potential breakout activity.
• Price remains above key support at 367.87 and is testing 380.7–381.14 as a dynamic resistance zone.
• High turnover during the rebound suggests accumulation or distribution at critical price levels.

Sui/Yen (SUIJPY) opened at 377.3 and traded in a range until 04:45 ET, when a sharp bullish reversal began. The pair hit a daily low of 367.87 and surged to 383.9, closing at 377.68 by 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume amounted to 185,955.61 units, with turnover reaching ¥57,339,342.20, showing increasing activity in the later half of the session.

The price structure shows a strong support zone around 367.87–369.42, confirmed by three distinct bounces and a large-volume bullish candle. Resistance is forming at 380.7–381.14, which has been tested twice, with mixed results. A bullish engulfing pattern is evident from 05:00 ET onward, which may indicate a shift in sentiment. The 15-minute 20SMA is above the 50SMA, signaling a short-term bullish bias, while the 50/100/200-day SMAs would provide long-term context.

Momentum has turned decisively in favor of buyers, with the RSI rising from oversold territory (32.7) to a neutral 53.4 by 12:00 ET. The MACD crossed the signal line in the positive zone around 05:00 ET, reinforcing the bullish setup. Bollinger Bands have widened from 369–372 to 377–386, showing growing volatility. Price has spent most of the session in the upper half of the bands, suggesting strong relative strength.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the 367.87–383.9 move show 377.68 at the 61.8% level, a critical psychological zone for near-term consolidation. If buyers fail to hold this level, a pullback to the 370.0–372.0 zone is expected. Volume and turnover have aligned closely with price action, particularly after 05:00 ET, indicating strong order flow. No significant divergence has been observed between volume and price.

Backtest Hypothesis
Given the sharp reversal and bullish engulfing pattern observed in the early morning hours, a backtest strategy could be constructed to evaluate the performance of entries at the close of the engulfing candle (around 05:00 ET) with a 1-day holding period. This approach would assess the frequency and profitability of such setups in SUIJPY over a broader historical period (e.g., 2022–2025), assuming consistent liquidity and price behavior. The strategy could be optimized by incorporating filters such as RSI above 50, MACD above zero, and volume exceeding a 15-period average. The final evaluation would include risk-reward ratios and win rate analysis to determine if this pattern is statistically significant for SUIJPY.