Market Overview for Sui/Yen (SUIJPY) – 24-Hour Analysis (2025-10-23)

• SUIJPY declined 0.5% over the past 24 hours amid declining momentum and bearish volume divergence.
• Key support was tested at 366.5, while resistance held near 373.0 before a final close near 373.74.
• Volatility expanded in early morning trading, with Bollinger Bands widening after a consolidation phase.
• RSI hovered in neutral territory, but a bearish divergence between price and volume suggests caution.
• A potential bullish correction may form around 373.0, but bearish follow-through looms if this level breaks.

Market Summary

At 12:00 ET–1, SUIJPY opened at 371.4 and closed at 373.74 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-23, after hitting a high of 378.95 and a low of 358.2. The 24-hour total volume was 250,961.34 contracts, with a notional turnover of 91,189,857.25 JPY (calculated as volume × average price). Price action showed a volatile session, punctuated by a sharp selloff in the early hours and a late rally toward the end of the period.

A key bearish pattern emerged during the 19:15–21:45 ET window, as SUIJPY dropped from 370.7 to 359.15 amid a spike in volume (9,814.73 contracts). This was followed by a rebound driven by large-volume buys, suggesting a possible short-covering rally. A 373.74 close indicates some short-term support forming near 373.0.

Structure and Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, SUIJPY closed above its 20-period moving average (373.1) but below the 50-period MA (374.2), suggesting a mixed short-term bias. The daily chart saw the 50-day MA at 373.6 and the 200-day MA at 369.4, with the current price just above the 50-day line. This suggests a tentative bullish tilt, though the 200-day MA may offer psychological support if further downside occurs.

Notable support levels include 366.5 (tested early in the session) and 363.0, while resistance forms around 373.0, 375.0, and 377.0. A candlestick “bullish engulfing” pattern appeared around 06:30–06:45 ET, as SUIJPY reversed a 365.68 open to a 376.95 close on high volume, indicating possible buying pressure.

Momentum and Volatility

MACD turned bullish in the final 4 hours, with the line crossing above the signal line at 06:30–06:45 ET, aligning with the bullish engulfing pattern. RSI remained in mid-range territory (45–60), indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. However, volume-based divergence began to emerge in the latter half of the session, as price rose on diminishing volume, a bearish sign.

Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion in the early hours (19:00–21:00 ET) before narrowing again as the market consolidated. Price action remained near the lower band for most of the session, but the late rally brought SUIJPY back into the mid-band range.

Fibonacci and Turnover Insights

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the intraday swing from 358.2 (low) to 378.95 (high), the 61.8% level sits at 372.0 and was a key resistance-turned-support zone. The 38.2% level at 369.3 was briefly tested but failed to hold.

Turnover spiked during the 21:30–22:30 ET window, as the asset traded 12,602.66 contracts, the highest volume of the session. This coincided with a sharp move from 361.2 to 359.15 and a reversal to 370.88, signaling a possible shift in sentiment.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtest strategy appears based on a classic momentum crossover using the MACD with standard parameters. A potential enhancement might involve using Fibonacci retracement levels (38.2% and 61.8%) as dynamic entry points in conjunction with the MACD signal. Given the observed late rally, a hypothetical entry at 373.0 (38.2% retracement) would align with a bullish breakout scenario.

Using the described risk-control parameters (5% take-profit, 2% stop-loss, 5-day max holding), a long entry at 373.0 would target a 391.65 exit, with a stop at 365.9. This would imply a risk-reward ratio of 1:4.5, a favorable setup for aggressive traders. However, the volume divergence and RSI neutrality suggest that caution is warranted, and traders might consider waiting for confirmation above 375.0 before initiating positions.

Forward-Looking View and Risk Caveat

In the next 24 hours, SUIJPY may test the 375.0–377.0 range as key resistance, particularly if bullish momentum continues. However, a breakdown below 373.0 could trigger a retest of the 366.5–363.0 support zone, which has shown strength in prior sessions. Traders should closely watch volume behavior and the RSI for signs of exhaustion or acceleration.

Market conditions remain volatile, with macroeconomic factors and broader crypto flows potentially influencing SUIJPY’s near-term direction.