Market Overview for Sui/Yen (SUIJPY) on 2025-11-11

Summary
• Price opened at 329.9 and closed at 322.2, with a high of 339.3 and a low of 324.63.
• A bearish breakout pattern emerged with declining volume after 01:30 ET.
• RSI dipped into oversold territory while MACD diverged, signaling potential exhaustion.
• Bollinger Bands showed a recent expansion, reflecting heightened volatility.
• Turnover spiked during the bullish reversal attempt at 23:00 ET, then sharply declined.

The Sui/Yen (SUIJPY) pair opened at 329.9 on 2025-11-10 at 12:00 ET and closed at 322.2 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-11. Over the 24-hour period, the pair reached a high of 339.3 and a low of 324.63. Total volume was 513,332.84, while notional turnover amounted to 171,636,020.08. The price action suggests a bearish shift, with a breakdown from key resistance levels and increasing bearish momentum.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a clear breakdown from the 330–335 resistance range, marked by a large bearish engulfing pattern at 01:30 ET. A series of lower lows followed, ending near the 322.2 level, which appears to be a short-term support. A bearish trendline is forming from the 339.3 high to the 322.2 close. A confirmation of a reversal may occur if the price holds above this level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (331.3) is below the 50-period MA (332.1), suggesting bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA (329.7) is slightly above the 200-period MA (327.4), indicating a weakening bullish trend. The price is currently below both, implying bearish control.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative after the 01:30 ET break, with the line crossing below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum. RSI is now in oversold territory at 29, suggesting a potential bounce. However, divergence between price and RSI implies caution—bullish bounces may not hold.

Bollinger Bands

The bands have expanded significantly, reflecting increased volatility. Price closed near the lower band, indicating bearish exhaustion. If the price continues below the midline, it may trigger further short-term selling pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased sharply during the initial bullish push at 23:00 ET but declined significantly afterward, suggesting weakening conviction. Turnover spiked during the 23:00 ET–00:30 ET rally but then dropped off. This divergence could signal a bearish reversal or consolidation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 324.63–339.3 swing, the 61.8% retracement level is at 328.3. The price has failed to hold this level, now testing the 38.2% level at 326.2. A break below 326.2 could trigger a move toward the 322.2 psychological support.

Backtest Hypothesis
The data source indicates no automatic identification of “Bearish Engulfing” candlestick pattern dates for SUIJPY since 2022, preventing direct backtesting of performance metrics for this strategy. To proceed, either a list of confirmed Bearish Engulfing dates must be provided manually, or a re-evaluation of the ticker symbol or data source may be necessary—especially if SUIJPY is a miscode for a different FX pair (e.g., CHFJPY). Once this information is clarified, an event-based backtest can be performed to assess how the pattern historically predicted price outcomes for SUIJPY, allowing for the creation of a robust backtesting framework. This will enable precise evaluation of entry, exit, and risk management parameters tied to the pattern.