Market Overview for Sui/Yen (SUIJPY) – 2025-10-09

• SUIJPY traded lower over 24 hours, closing near session lows amid bearish momentum and high volume.
• A key support zone appears near ¥515.85 with a potential rebound scenario.
• Volatility expanded after a brief contraction, with price testing lower Bollinger Band levels.
• RSI suggests oversold conditions, while MACD signals weakening bullish momentum.
• Volume and turnover remain elevated, showing continued interest despite the downward trend.

Sui/Yen (SUIJPY) opened at ¥528.3 on October 8 at 16:00 ET and closed at ¥516.0 by 12:00 ET on October 9. The pair reached a high of ¥544.82 and a low of ¥513.0 over the 24-hour period. Total traded volume was 165,176 units with a notional turnover of ¥88,102,500. The pair’s price action revealed a bearish bias amid a key support test.

Structure & Formations

SUIJPY formed a descending pattern, with notable bearish engulfing patterns observed in the late evening and overnight sessions. A doji candle appeared near ¥519.28 around 01:15 ET, suggesting indecision. Key support levels were identified near ¥515.85 and ¥513.0, while resistance levels appear at ¥521.04 and ¥524.24. A potential bullish reversal may occur if the price manages to hold above ¥515.85.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are bearishly aligned, with the 20 MA crossing below the 50 MA, reinforcing the downtrend. The daily chart shows the 50-day MA at ¥531.4 and the 200-day MA near ¥538.7, with the price currently well below both, indicating a deeper bearish bias over the medium to long term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative and remains below the signal line, with the histogram showing a consistent bearish momentum. RSI is currently in oversold territory (around 28), suggesting a potential short-term bounce but not a reversal. The divergence between volume and RSI remains weak, indicating cautious optimism.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded late in the session, with the Bollinger Bands widening from a brief contraction. The price tested the lower band near ¥513.0 and bounced slightly toward the mid-band. This suggests the market is in a consolidation phase, with the lower boundary acting as a key psychological and technical level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume remained elevated during the early part of the session, with peaks around ¥537.3 and ¥541.3, before tapering off in the final hours. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, peaking in the early morning and declining during the final candle. The volume and price action are aligned, reinforcing the bearish narrative.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from ¥544.82 to ¥513.0, the 61.8% level is at ¥521.04 and the 38.2% at ¥530.9. The daily move shows the 61.8% retracement at ¥526.6 and the 38.2% at ¥536.4. The current price sits near the 61.8% level of the 15-minute move, suggesting a potential bounce or continuation depending on volume confirmation.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering a short position when the price breaks below the 20-period MA on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bearish divergence in RSI and a close below the lower Bollinger Band. A stop-loss could be placed just above the nearest resistance level, with a target aligned to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. The strategy would aim to capture continuation moves during high volatility periods, such as those observed in the overnight and early morning sessions.