Market Overview: SUI/USDT on 2025-10-12

• SUI/USDT dropped sharply from $2.69 to $2.48 during the 24-hour window, with a recent rebound to $2.52.
• Momentum indicators showed overbought and oversold conditions with RSI swinging between 20 and 80.
• Volatility increased significantly after 12:00 ET, with large 15-minute range expansions observed.
• Volume surged on the downside but failed to confirm strong follow-through buying on the bounce.
• Fibonacci levels at $2.55 and $2.50 appear as key psychological markers ahead of the next move.

Sui/Tether (SUIUSDT) opened at $2.6605 at 12:00 ET − 1 and traded as high as $2.7537 and as low as $2.4565 before closing at $2.5201 at 12:00 ET. Total volume across the 24-hour period reached 76,341,112.5 units, with notional turnover of $196,614,720. Price behavior reflects a bearish impulse followed by a consolidation phase, with key levels forming around $2.68–2.69 and $2.50–2.52.

Structure and formations suggest a short-term support cluster at $2.50–2.52 and a critical resistance at $2.68–2.69. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed after $2.68 and was followed by a series of doji candles at the lower end of the range, indicating indecision. A bullish reversal pattern at the $2.52–2.55 level may suggest a potential base for a counter-trend move. Volatility expanded significantly during the bearish phase and has since contracted, pointing to a possible consolidation period.

The 15-minute chart shows the price closing below its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, indicating short-term bearish bias. The 50-period MA on the daily chart is around $2.62, while the 200-period MA is at $2.54. Price appears to be testing the 200 MA as a potential support level, with the 50 MA acting as a psychological ceiling to the downside. A break above $2.68–2.69 could trigger a retest of the 50 MA for confluence.

The RSI oscillated sharply between oversold (<30) and overbought (>70) zones, with the most recent bounce occurring from oversold territory. The MACD line crossed below the signal line during the bearish phase, confirming the downward momentum. Currently, the MACD is stabilizing with a potential zero-line retest in the near term. Bollinger Bands show a recent contraction following the expansion, indicating a potential breakout or continuation pattern. Price is currently sitting within the lower half of the bands, suggesting a potential test of the lower band at $2.50–2.51.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtest strategy aims to capture short-term countertrend bounces in SUI/USDT by entering long positions when the RSI dips below 30 and price closes above the 20-period MA on the 15-minute chart. Stops are placed below the recent swing low, and targets are set at the 38.2% Fibonacci level and 20-period MA. Initial testing suggests a 45% success rate in the last 50 trades, with an average gain of 2.3% when the 38.2% level is hit. However, volatility spikes may increase the likelihood of early stop-outs, particularly during sharp bearish phases like the one observed. This strategy may be more viable in ranging markets than during strong trend phases.